US-Iran diplomatic tensions persist after marathon peace talks in Islamabad ended without agreement on April 12, 2026, prompting the US to impose a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz amid a fragile ceasefire. Vice President JD Vance led the US delegation, facing Iranian demands over sanctions relief and nuclear constraints, while Tehran cited last-minute US conditions as the impasse. President Trump signaled Iranian outreach for renewed negotiations, with diplomats now arranging a potential second round as early as this week in Islamabad or Geneva before the ceasefire expires. Traders weigh fragile de-escalation signals against blockade risks and historical negotiation deadlocks, with no confirmed meeting date yet.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
$632,214 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
April 15
1%
April 16
6%
April 17
19%
April 18
45%
April 22
78%
April 30
88%
$632,214 Vol.
April 15
$20,335 Vol.
1%
April 16
$32,356 Vol.
6%
April 17
$12,098 Vol.
19%
April 18
$327,615 Vol.
45%
April 22
$161,863 Vol.
78%
April 30
$79,938 Vol.
88%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.US-Iran diplomatic tensions persist after marathon peace talks in Islamabad ended without agreement on April 12, 2026, prompting the US to impose a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz amid a fragile ceasefire. Vice President JD Vance led the US delegation, facing Iranian demands over sanctions relief and nuclear constraints, while Tehran cited last-minute US conditions as the impasse. President Trump signaled Iranian outreach for renewed negotiations, with diplomats now arranging a potential second round as early as this week in Islamabad or Geneva before the ceasefire expires. Traders weigh fragile de-escalation signals against blockade risks and historical negotiation deadlocks, with no confirmed meeting date yet.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Apr 14, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$632,214End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.US-Iran diplomatic tensions persist after marathon peace talks in Islamabad ended without agreement on April 12, 2026, prompting the US to impose a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz amid a fragile ceasefire. Vice President JD Vance led the US delegation, facing Iranian demands over sanctions relief and nuclear constraints, while Tehran cited last-minute US conditions as the impasse. President Trump signaled Iranian outreach for renewed negotiations, with diplomats now arranging a potential second round as early as this week in Islamabad or Geneva before the ceasefire expires. Traders weigh fragile de-escalation signals against blockade risks and historical negotiation deadlocks, with no confirmed meeting date yet.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$632,214End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran diplomatic tensions persist after marathon peace talks in Islamabad ended without agreement on April 12, 2026, prompting the US to impose a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz amid a fragile ceasefire. Vice President JD Vance led the US delegation, facing Iranian demands over sanctions relief and nuclear constraints, while Tehran cited last-minute US conditions as the impasse. President Trump signaled Iranian outreach for renewed negotiations, with diplomats now arranging a potential second round as early as this week in Islamabad or Geneva before the ceasefire expires. Traders weigh fragile de-escalation signals against blockade risks and historical negotiation deadlocks, with no confirmed meeting date yet.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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