Amid a fragile US-Iran ceasefire nearing expiration and a US naval blockade of Iranian ports via the Strait of Hormuz, Pakistani mediators hosted the first direct talks since 2015 in Islamabad on April 11, where Vice President J.D. Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner met Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi—ending after 21 hours without agreement on nuclear curbs or sanctions relief. A Pakistani delegation conferred with Iranian officials in Tehran on April 16 to advance a second round potentially this week, as President Trump signals imminent diplomacy and the White House expresses optimism. Traders price high probabilities for these US principals physically participating in-person by April 30, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on urgent de-escalation before truce collapse risks wider conflict.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
$116,726 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Donald Trump
5%
J.D. Vance
76%
Marco Rubio
9%
Jared Kushner
80%
Steve Witkoff
82%
$116,726 Vol.
Donald Trump
$96,972 Vol.
5%
J.D. Vance
$7,819 Vol.
76%
Marco Rubio
$5,431 Vol.
9%
Jared Kushner
$2,490 Vol.
80%
Steve Witkoff
$4,016 Vol.
82%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Amid a fragile US-Iran ceasefire nearing expiration and a US naval blockade of Iranian ports via the Strait of Hormuz, Pakistani mediators hosted the first direct talks since 2015 in Islamabad on April 11, where Vice President J.D. Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner met Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi—ending after 21 hours without agreement on nuclear curbs or sanctions relief. A Pakistani delegation conferred with Iranian officials in Tehran on April 16 to advance a second round potentially this week, as President Trump signals imminent diplomacy and the White House expresses optimism. Traders price high probabilities for these US principals physically participating in-person by April 30, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on urgent de-escalation before truce collapse risks wider conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 14, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Volume
$116,726End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Amid a fragile US-Iran ceasefire nearing expiration and a US naval blockade of Iranian ports via the Strait of Hormuz, Pakistani mediators hosted the first direct talks since 2015 in Islamabad on April 11, where Vice President J.D. Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner met Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi—ending after 21 hours without agreement on nuclear curbs or sanctions relief. A Pakistani delegation conferred with Iranian officials in Tehran on April 16 to advance a second round potentially this week, as President Trump signals imminent diplomacy and the White House expresses optimism. Traders price high probabilities for these US principals physically participating in-person by April 30, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on urgent de-escalation before truce collapse risks wider conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$116,726End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid a fragile US-Iran ceasefire nearing expiration and a US naval blockade of Iranian ports via the Strait of Hormuz, Pakistani mediators hosted the first direct talks since 2015 in Islamabad on April 11, where Vice President J.D. Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner met Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi—ending after 21 hours without agreement on nuclear curbs or sanctions relief. A Pakistani delegation conferred with Iranian officials in Tehran on April 16 to advance a second round potentially this week, as President Trump signals imminent diplomacy and the White House expresses optimism. Traders price high probabilities for these US principals physically participating in-person by April 30, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on urgent de-escalation before truce collapse risks wider conflict.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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