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Who will replace Mullin as Oklahoma Senator?

Market icon

Who will replace Mullin as Oklahoma Senator?

Matt Pinnell 25%

Kevin Stitt 9%

Stephanie Bice 6.5%

None Before Midterm Election 2.8%

Polymarket

$24,546 Vol.

Matt Pinnell 25%

Kevin Stitt 9%

Stephanie Bice 6.5%

None Before Midterm Election 2.8%

Polymarket

$24,546 Vol.

Gentner Drummond

$267 Vol.

2%

Matt Pinnell

$18,124 Vol.

25%

Kevin Hern

$1,348 Vol.

2%

Stephanie Bice

$3,596 Vol.

7%

Kevin Stitt

$1,017 Vol.

9%

Charles McCall

$0 Vol.

1%

Ryan Walters

$193 Vol.

1%

None Before Midterm Election

$0 Vol.

3%

On March 5, 2026, Donald Trump announced that the United States Senator from Oklahoma, Markwayne Mullin, will be appointed to replace Kristi Noem as United States Secretary of Homeland Security.

This market will resolve according to the next person officially appointed by the Governor of Oklahoma, or otherwise formally selected according the jurisdiction's vacancy rules, to fill Markwayne Mullin’s seat as United States Senator from Oklahoma.

Interim, Acting, or other temporary Senators appointed or elected to the role will count.

If no replacement senator has been appointed or elected by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None Before Midterm Election.”

Additionally, if, prior to November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a widespread consensus of credible reporting indicates that Markwayne Mullin will complete his term as United States Senator (e.g. if Mullin’s nomination as Secretary of Homeland Security is rejected or withdrawn and he announces he will complete his term), this market will resolve immediately to “None Before Midterm Election.”

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Oklahoma; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$24,546
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 5, 2026, 5:09 PM ET
On March 5, 2026, Donald Trump announced that the United States Senator from Oklahoma, Markwayne Mullin, will be appointed to replace Kristi Noem as United States Secretary of Homeland Security. This market will resolve according to the next person officially appointed by the Governor of Oklahoma, or otherwise formally selected according the jurisdiction's vacancy rules, to fill Markwayne Mullin’s seat as United States Senator from Oklahoma. Interim, Acting, or other temporary Senators appointed or elected to the role will count. If no replacement senator has been appointed or elected by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None Before Midterm Election.” Additionally, if, prior to November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a widespread consensus of credible reporting indicates that Markwayne Mullin will complete his term as United States Senator (e.g. if Mullin’s nomination as Secretary of Homeland Security is rejected or withdrawn and he announces he will complete his term), this market will resolve immediately to “None Before Midterm Election.” The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Oklahoma; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will replace Mullin as Oklahoma Senator?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Matt Pinnell" at 25%, followed by "Kevin Stitt" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 25¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will replace Mullin as Oklahoma Senator?" has generated $24.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 5, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will replace Mullin as Oklahoma Senator?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will replace Mullin as Oklahoma Senator?" is "Matt Pinnell" at 25%, meaning the market assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Kevin Stitt" at 9%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will replace Mullin as Oklahoma Senator?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.