**President Isaac Herzog has deferred any decision on Benjamin Netanyahu’s November 2025 pardon request in the long-running corruption trial, instead directing efforts toward mediation for a plea deal.** In late April 2026, Herzog’s office confirmed he would not grant clemency at that stage and would first exhaust negotiations between the prime minister’s legal team and the attorney general. The Justice Ministry’s Pardons Department had already advised in March 2026 that granting a mid-trial pardon raised serious questions of legal authority and equality before the law, offering no recommendation to proceed. With the June 30 resolution date only weeks away and no subsequent procedural movement or public signals of imminent action, traders assign a 94% probability to “No.” External calls from U.S. President Donald Trump have not altered Herzog’s stated approach of independent review under established procedures. The compressed timeline, Herzog’s explicit preference for a negotiated settlement over unilateral clemency, and the absence of any fast-track mechanism together account for the strong market consensus against a pardon occurring before the deadline.