Presidential clemency authority allows the executive to grant pardons or commutations for federal offenses at any point before the end of the term. Market positioning reflects trader assessments of likely recipients among political allies, January 6 defendants, or others facing federal charges, based on prior term patterns and public statements. Key variables include ongoing investigations, legislative priorities, and any announced policy focus on specific cases. Developments such as court rulings, plea deals, or direct administration signals on clemency could alter implied probabilities ahead of 2027. Resolution hinges on verified official actions rather than speculation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$354,970 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Matt Gaetz
52%
Daniel Penny
41%
Keonne Rodriguez
25%
Ryan Salame
16%
Elizabeth Holmes
15%
Stefan Brodie
15%
Roger Ver
14%
Roger Stone
14%
Steve Bannon
12%
Martin Shkreli
11%
Eric Adams
11%
Joe Exotic
9%
Antoine Massey
8%
Diddy
7%
Julian Assange
7%
Edward Snowden
6%
Himself
6%
Nicolas Maduro
6%
Hunter Biden
5%
Derek Chauvin
5%
Ghislaine Maxwell
5%
Sam Bankman-Fried
5%
Bob Menendez
14%
Young Thug
3%
Elon Musk
3%
Do Kwon
1%
Donald Brodie
44%
$354,970 Vol.
Matt Gaetz
$37 Vol.
52%
Daniel Penny
$119 Vol.
41%
Keonne Rodriguez
$10,236 Vol.
25%
Ryan Salame
$22,787 Vol.
16%
Elizabeth Holmes
$1,472 Vol.
15%
Stefan Brodie
$145 Vol.
15%
Roger Ver
$669 Vol.
14%
Roger Stone
$564 Vol.
14%
Steve Bannon
$7,775 Vol.
12%
Martin Shkreli
$29,098 Vol.
11%
Eric Adams
$550 Vol.
11%
Joe Exotic
$352 Vol.
9%
Antoine Massey
$0 Vol.
8%
Diddy
$17,988 Vol.
7%
Julian Assange
$1,846 Vol.
7%
Edward Snowden
$1,976 Vol.
6%
Himself
$9,080 Vol.
6%
Nicolas Maduro
$8,585 Vol.
6%
Hunter Biden
$2,626 Vol.
5%
Derek Chauvin
$19,003 Vol.
5%
Ghislaine Maxwell
$17,168 Vol.
5%
Sam Bankman-Fried
$123,869 Vol.
5%
Bob Menendez
$157 Vol.
14%
Young Thug
$4,281 Vol.
3%
Elon Musk
$51,795 Vol.
3%
Do Kwon
$22,772 Vol.
1%
Donald Brodie
$20 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 16, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 4, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Presidential clemency authority allows the executive to grant pardons or commutations for federal offenses at any point before the end of the term. Market positioning reflects trader assessments of likely recipients among political allies, January 6 defendants, or others facing federal charges, based on prior term patterns and public statements. Key variables include ongoing investigations, legislative priorities, and any announced policy focus on specific cases. Developments such as court rulings, plea deals, or direct administration signals on clemency could alter implied probabilities ahead of 2027. Resolution hinges on verified official actions rather than speculation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 18, 2025, 10:46 AM ET
Volume
$354,970End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 16, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 4, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Presidential clemency authority allows the executive to grant pardons or commutations for federal offenses at any point before the end of the term. Market positioning reflects trader assessments of likely recipients among political allies, January 6 defendants, or others facing federal charges, based on prior term patterns and public statements. Key variables include ongoing investigations, legislative priorities, and any announced policy focus on specific cases. Developments such as court rulings, plea deals, or direct administration signals on clemency could alter implied probabilities ahead of 2027. Resolution hinges on verified official actions rather than speculation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$354,970End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Presidential clemency authority allows the executive to grant pardons or commutations for federal offenses at any point before the end of the term. Market positioning reflects trader assessments of likely recipients among political allies, January 6 defendants, or others facing federal charges, based on prior term patterns and public statements. Key variables include ongoing investigations, legislative priorities, and any announced policy focus on specific cases. Developments such as court rulings, plea deals, or direct administration signals on clemency could alter implied probabilities ahead of 2027. Resolution hinges on verified official actions rather than speculation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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