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Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

icon for Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

$473,146 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$473,146 Vol.

Polymarket

Roger Stone

$8,699 Vol.

26%

Stefan Brodie

$2,809 Vol.

20%

Keonne Rodriguez

$17,544 Vol.

15%

Ryan Salame

$32,068 Vol.

14%

Matt Gaetz

$6,364 Vol.

13%

Daniel Penny

$508 Vol.

11%

Donald Brodie

$5,058 Vol.

10%

Steve Bannon

$8,089 Vol.

9%

Eric Adams

$1,101 Vol.

9%

Joe Exotic

$5,369 Vol.

9%

Roger Ver

$2,793 Vol.

7%

Young Thug

$4,717 Vol.

7%

Bob Menendez

$295 Vol.

6%

Derek Chauvin

$26,856 Vol.

6%

Julian Assange

$4,323 Vol.

6%

Elizabeth Holmes

$3,613 Vol.

5%

Ghislaine Maxwell

$25,398 Vol.

5%

Diddy

$30,939 Vol.

4%

Nicolas Maduro

$10,351 Vol.

4%

Sam Bankman-Fried

$141,700 Vol.

4%

Martin Shkreli

$31,318 Vol.

4%

Edward Snowden

$3,226 Vol.

4%

Andrew Tate

$1,485 Vol.

4%

Antoine Massey

$2,480 Vol.

3%

Himself

$13,668 Vol.

3%

Do Kwon

$23,621 Vol.

3%

Elon Musk

$53,076 Vol.

3%

Hunter Biden

$5,679 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 16, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 4, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trump has already issued clemency to more than 1,700 individuals in his second term, beginning with blanket pardons and commutations for roughly 1,500 January 6 defendants on inauguration day and extending to 2020 election-related figures such as Rudy Giuliani and Mark Meadows. Subsequent grants have favored political allies, white-collar offenders with connections to Trump insiders or donors, and select cases advanced by a network of lobbyists and influencers operating outside the traditional Department of Justice process. Recent activity includes batches of 17–30 grants in mid-2026, alongside floated proposals for larger symbolic actions tied to the nation’s 250th anniversary. Through September 2026, trader attention centers on which additional connected individuals or categories could receive relief before the 2027 cutoff, amid reports of high-fee advocacy and Democratic pledges to scrutinize the process. Midterm outcomes and any late-term priorities could further shape the scope.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$473,146
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 10:46 AM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 16, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 4, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trump has already issued clemency to more than 1,700 individuals in his second term, beginning with blanket pardons and commutations for roughly 1,500 January 6 defendants on inauguration day and extending to 2020 election-related figures such as Rudy Giuliani and Mark Meadows. Subsequent grants have favored political allies, white-collar offenders with connections to Trump insiders or donors, and select cases advanced by a network of lobbyists and influencers operating outside the traditional Department of Justice process. Recent activity includes batches of 17–30 grants in mid-2026, alongside floated proposals for larger symbolic actions tied to the nation’s 250th anniversary. Through September 2026, trader attention centers on which additional connected individuals or categories could receive relief before the 2027 cutoff, amid reports of high-fee advocacy and Democratic pledges to scrutinize the process. Midterm outcomes and any late-term priorities could further shape the scope.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$473,146
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 10:46 AM ET

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 28 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Roger Stone" at 26%, followed by "Stefan Brodie" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 26¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 26% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" has generated $473.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?," browse the 28 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" is "Roger Stone" at 26%, meaning the market assigns a 26% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Stefan Brodie" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.