**Iran’s continued NPT membership, despite repeated parliamentary threats and bills in 2025–2026, reflects calculated restraint amid significant costs.** Following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025 and subsequent rounds in 2026, lawmakers introduced withdrawal legislation citing non-compliance findings by the IAEA Board and loss of safeguards access. Officials including Foreign Ministry spokespeople described parliament as reviewing options and noted Iran operating without IAEA inspectors or declarations, effectively behaving as a non-party while remaining formally bound. No bill has advanced to passage, Guardian Council approval, or formal three-month notification under Article X. Iranian statements consistently reaffirm the Supreme Leader’s nuclear weapons prohibition and openness to diplomacy, including post-strike MoU negotiations that collapsed in mid-2026. Withdrawal would forfeit NPT-derived rights to peaceful nuclear technology, intensify isolation through additional sanctions, and remove any remaining diplomatic cover, while current non-cooperation already limits verification without triggering full exit consequences. The 2026 NPT Review Conference deadlock over Iran’s compliance further underscores ongoing tensions but produced no Iranian departure. Traders price an 84.9% chance of no withdrawal before 2027 because these structural barriers and the absence of decisive action outweigh rhetoric, with any shift hinging on verifiable escalations or formal legislative outcomes within the narrow remaining window.