**No at 94.5% reflects the absence of active U.S. operations or credible plans to seize another sitting head of state before year-end.** The January 3, 2026, military operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and transported him to New York for narco-terrorism charges was enabled by longstanding federal indictments, Venezuela’s specific circumstances, and executive authorization. That action remains the sole verified instance of its kind in 2026. No comparable legal, diplomatic, or military preconditions currently exist for other UN member-state leaders. Reporting through late August shows continued focus on trade measures, alliance adjustments, and Middle East developments rather than new extraterritorial apprehensions. International legal challenges and institutional caution around head-of-state immunity further reduce the likelihood of repeat action within the remaining months. Traders therefore assign overwhelming probability against an additional capture by December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill the US capture another world leader in 2026?
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?
6% chance
$81,128 Vol.
$81,128 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
6% chance
$81,128 Vol.
$81,128 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**No at 94.5% reflects the absence of active U.S. operations or credible plans to seize another sitting head of state before year-end.** The January 3, 2026, military operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and transported him to New York for narco-terrorism charges was enabled by longstanding federal indictments, Venezuela’s specific circumstances, and executive authorization. That action remains the sole verified instance of its kind in 2026.
No comparable legal, diplomatic, or military preconditions currently exist for other UN member-state leaders. Reporting through late August shows continued focus on trade measures, alliance adjustments, and Middle East developments rather than new extraterritorial apprehensions. International legal challenges and institutional caution around head-of-state immunity further reduce the likelihood of repeat action within the remaining months. Traders therefore assign overwhelming probability against an additional capture by December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
Volume
$81,128End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**No at 94.5% reflects the absence of active U.S. operations or credible plans to seize another sitting head of state before year-end.** The January 3, 2026, military operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and transported him to New York for narco-terrorism charges was enabled by longstanding federal indictments, Venezuela’s specific circumstances, and executive authorization. That action remains the sole verified instance of its kind in 2026.
No comparable legal, diplomatic, or military preconditions currently exist for other UN member-state leaders. Reporting through late August shows continued focus on trade measures, alliance adjustments, and Middle East developments rather than new extraterritorial apprehensions. International legal challenges and institutional caution around head-of-state immunity further reduce the likelihood of repeat action within the remaining months. Traders therefore assign overwhelming probability against an additional capture by December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$81,128End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**No at 94.5% reflects the absence of active U.S. operations or credible plans to seize another sitting head of state before year-end.** The January 3, 2026, military operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and transported him to New York for narco-terrorism charges was enabled by longstanding federal indictments, Venezuela’s specific circumstances, and executive authorization. That action remains the sole verified instance of its kind in 2026. No comparable legal, diplomatic, or military preconditions currently exist for other UN member-state leaders. Reporting through late August shows continued focus on trade measures, alliance adjustments, and Middle East developments rather than new extraterritorial apprehensions. International legal challenges and institutional caution around head-of-state immunity further reduce the likelihood of repeat action within the remaining months. Traders therefore assign overwhelming probability against an additional capture by December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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