**QS maintains a strong position in several Montreal-area ridings despite weaker province-wide polling.** Québec Solidaire currently holds 11 seats and enters the October 5, 2026 election with safe or likely projections in core urban districts such as Gouin and Mercier, plus competitive chances in Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques and toss-ups in Hochelaga-Maisonneuve and Taschereau. Aggregators like 338Canada project roughly 5 seats (range 2–10) on a popular vote share near 9–10%, reflecting concentrated support in francophone and progressive Montreal ridings even as the party trails overall at 7–11% in recent Léger and other surveys. The election call on August 27 has not altered these structural advantages, and no late developments have indicated a total wipeout. Trader pricing at 90.5% for at least one seat aligns with the consistent finding across models that QS retains a foothold in its historic strongholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated91% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
91% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**QS maintains a strong position in several Montreal-area ridings despite weaker province-wide polling.**
Québec Solidaire currently holds 11 seats and enters the October 5, 2026 election with safe or likely projections in core urban districts such as Gouin and Mercier, plus competitive chances in Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques and toss-ups in Hochelaga-Maisonneuve and Taschereau. Aggregators like 338Canada project roughly 5 seats (range 2–10) on a popular vote share near 9–10%, reflecting concentrated support in francophone and progressive Montreal ridings even as the party trails overall at 7–11% in recent Léger and other surveys. The election call on August 27 has not altered these structural advantages, and no late developments have indicated a total wipeout. Trader pricing at 90.5% for at least one seat aligns with the consistent finding across models that QS retains a foothold in its historic strongholds.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ET
Volume
$238End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**QS maintains a strong position in several Montreal-area ridings despite weaker province-wide polling.**
Québec Solidaire currently holds 11 seats and enters the October 5, 2026 election with safe or likely projections in core urban districts such as Gouin and Mercier, plus competitive chances in Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques and toss-ups in Hochelaga-Maisonneuve and Taschereau. Aggregators like 338Canada project roughly 5 seats (range 2–10) on a popular vote share near 9–10%, reflecting concentrated support in francophone and progressive Montreal ridings even as the party trails overall at 7–11% in recent Léger and other surveys. The election call on August 27 has not altered these structural advantages, and no late developments have indicated a total wipeout. Trader pricing at 90.5% for at least one seat aligns with the consistent finding across models that QS retains a foothold in its historic strongholds.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$238End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x65070BE91...**QS maintains a strong position in several Montreal-area ridings despite weaker province-wide polling.** Québec Solidaire currently holds 11 seats and enters the October 5, 2026 election with safe or likely projections in core urban districts such as Gouin and Mercier, plus competitive chances in Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques and toss-ups in Hochelaga-Maisonneuve and Taschereau. Aggregators like 338Canada project roughly 5 seats (range 2–10) on a popular vote share near 9–10%, reflecting concentrated support in francophone and progressive Montreal ridings even as the party trails overall at 7–11% in recent Léger and other surveys. The election call on August 27 has not altered these structural advantages, and no late developments have indicated a total wipeout. Trader pricing at 90.5% for at least one seat aligns with the consistent finding across models that QS retains a foothold in its historic strongholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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