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Politics·Venezuela

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

icon for Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Politics·Venezuela

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

7% chance
Polymarket

$3,280,150 Vol.

7% chance
Polymarket

$3,280,150 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.US policy toward Cuba in 2026 has centered on maximum economic pressure through expanded sanctions, secondary tariffs on fuel suppliers, immigration restrictions, and designations targeting state enterprises and alleged subversive activities, alongside limited diplomatic engagement and reported talks. Official statements and actions emphasize demands for reforms, severed ties with China and Russia, and potential leadership changes via non-military means, consistent with the Venezuela precedent but without committing forces. Pentagon contingency planning has surfaced in reporting, yet senior officials have repeatedly downplayed imminent strikes, citing risks of escalation and prioritizing coercive leverage. These developments underpin the strong trader consensus against a 2026 invasion, as the administration's approach has remained below the threshold of direct military intervention through September.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$3,280,150
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.US policy toward Cuba in 2026 has centered on maximum economic pressure through expanded sanctions, secondary tariffs on fuel suppliers, immigration restrictions, and designations targeting state enterprises and alleged subversive activities, alongside limited diplomatic engagement and reported talks. Official statements and actions emphasize demands for reforms, severed ties with China and Russia, and potential leadership changes via non-military means, consistent with the Venezuela precedent but without committing forces. Pentagon contingency planning has surfaced in reporting, yet senior officials have repeatedly downplayed imminent strikes, citing risks of escalation and prioritizing coercive leverage. These developments underpin the strong trader consensus against a 2026 invasion, as the administration's approach has remained below the threshold of direct military intervention through September.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$3,280,150
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 7% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 7¢, the market collectively assigns a 7% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?" has generated $3.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?" is 7% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 7% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.