US strikes on Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps targets in southern Iran since early September 2026 remain limited to airstrikes and responses to shipping incidents in the Strait of Hormuz, consistent with the pattern of targeted operations that began after the February 2026 initial campaign and the June memorandum of understanding. The Trump administration has pursued sanctions relief tied to talks, nuclear inspection discussions, and post-midterm de-escalation signals while rejecting broader ground commitments that military assessments describe as high-risk and resource-intensive. Ongoing diplomatic engagement through intermediaries, coupled with domestic political pressures ahead of November 2026 midterms, reinforces trader views that a full-scale invasion remains unlikely before 2027 absent major unforeseen escalation.