Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford faces Democrat Terri Yarbrough Green in Arkansas’s 1st congressional district on November 3, 2026, after advancing unopposed in the March Republican primary. The rural, eastern Arkansas seat has delivered consistent Republican margins exceeding 25 points in recent cycles, including Crawford’s 72.9 percent share in 2024. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Republican, reflecting the district’s partisan composition and the absence of competitive primary challenges or notable Democratic momentum. Trader consensus at 92.5 percent Republican probability aligns with these structural factors. A shift would require an unprecedented national political realignment or late-cycle event capable of overcoming the district’s established voting patterns.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAR-01 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
AR-01 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$18,777 Vol.
$18,777 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
93%
Parti démocrate
6%
$18,777 Vol.
$18,777 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
$11,178 Vol.
93%
Parti démocrate
$7,599 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford faces Democrat Terri Yarbrough Green in Arkansas’s 1st congressional district on November 3, 2026, after advancing unopposed in the March Republican primary. The rural, eastern Arkansas seat has delivered consistent Republican margins exceeding 25 points in recent cycles, including Crawford’s 72.9 percent share in 2024. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Republican, reflecting the district’s partisan composition and the absence of competitive primary challenges or notable Democratic momentum. Trader consensus at 92.5 percent Republican probability aligns with these structural factors. A shift would require an unprecedented national political realignment or late-cycle event capable of overcoming the district’s established voting patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$18,777Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford faces Democrat Terri Yarbrough Green in Arkansas’s 1st congressional district on November 3, 2026, after advancing unopposed in the March Republican primary. The rural, eastern Arkansas seat has delivered consistent Republican margins exceeding 25 points in recent cycles, including Crawford’s 72.9 percent share in 2024. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Republican, reflecting the district’s partisan composition and the absence of competitive primary challenges or notable Democratic momentum. Trader consensus at 92.5 percent Republican probability aligns with these structural factors. A shift would require an unprecedented national political realignment or late-cycle event capable of overcoming the district’s established voting patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$18,777Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford faces Democrat Terri Yarbrough Green in Arkansas’s 1st congressional district on November 3, 2026, after advancing unopposed in the March Republican primary. The rural, eastern Arkansas seat has delivered consistent Republican margins exceeding 25 points in recent cycles, including Crawford’s 72.9 percent share in 2024. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Republican, reflecting the district’s partisan composition and the absence of competitive primary challenges or notable Democratic momentum. Trader consensus at 92.5 percent Republican probability aligns with these structural factors. A shift would require an unprecedented national political realignment or late-cycle event capable of overcoming the district’s established voting patterns.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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