The European Central Bank’s deposit facility rate stands at 2.00 percent after the April 2026 decision to hold steady, yet the outbreak of conflict involving Iran has driven sharp energy-price increases that are feeding into headline and core inflation readings. This shock reversed earlier market pricing for additional cuts and shifted consensus toward at least one, and likely two, 25-basis-point hikes before year-end, with June now widely expected to mark the first tightening move. The Governing Council’s data-dependent stance and emphasis on containing second-round effects underpin the near-certain trader view that some increase will occur during 2026. Only a rapid de-escalation, sustained commodity-price decline, or marked weakening in euro-area demand would likely keep policy on hold through December.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHausse des taux de la BCE en 2026 ?
Hausse des taux de la BCE en 2026 ?
Oui
$130,217 Vol.
$130,217 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$130,217 Vol.
$130,217 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The European Central Bank’s deposit facility rate stands at 2.00 percent after the April 2026 decision to hold steady, yet the outbreak of conflict involving Iran has driven sharp energy-price increases that are feeding into headline and core inflation readings. This shock reversed earlier market pricing for additional cuts and shifted consensus toward at least one, and likely two, 25-basis-point hikes before year-end, with June now widely expected to mark the first tightening move. The Governing Council’s data-dependent stance and emphasis on containing second-round effects underpin the near-certain trader view that some increase will occur during 2026. Only a rapid de-escalation, sustained commodity-price decline, or marked weakening in euro-area demand would likely keep policy on hold through December.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
Volume
$130,217Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The European Central Bank’s deposit facility rate stands at 2.00 percent after the April 2026 decision to hold steady, yet the outbreak of conflict involving Iran has driven sharp energy-price increases that are feeding into headline and core inflation readings. This shock reversed earlier market pricing for additional cuts and shifted consensus toward at least one, and likely two, 25-basis-point hikes before year-end, with June now widely expected to mark the first tightening move. The Governing Council’s data-dependent stance and emphasis on containing second-round effects underpin the near-certain trader view that some increase will occur during 2026. Only a rapid de-escalation, sustained commodity-price decline, or marked weakening in euro-area demand would likely keep policy on hold through December.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$130,217Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The European Central Bank’s deposit facility rate stands at 2.00 percent after the April 2026 decision to hold steady, yet the outbreak of conflict involving Iran has driven sharp energy-price increases that are feeding into headline and core inflation readings. This shock reversed earlier market pricing for additional cuts and shifted consensus toward at least one, and likely two, 25-basis-point hikes before year-end, with June now widely expected to mark the first tightening move. The Governing Council’s data-dependent stance and emphasis on containing second-round effects underpin the near-certain trader view that some increase will occur during 2026. Only a rapid de-escalation, sustained commodity-price decline, or marked weakening in euro-area demand would likely keep policy on hold through December.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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