Recent Middle East energy price surges have lifted Eurozone headline inflation expectations to 2.7% for 2026, prompting the ECB to signal data-dependent tightening and markets to price a near-certain 25-basis-point deposit rate increase at the June 2026 meeting. Professional forecasters and futures markets now embed at least one hike this year to anchor expectations amid the shock, with the Governing Council’s meeting-by-meeting approach leaving scope for further action if core pressures persist. Trader consensus at 99.6% on a 2026 hike reflects this repricing, though faster commodity declines, subdued demand, or contained second-round effects could still allow the bank to hold its current stance through year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHausse des taux de la BCE en 2026 ?
Oui
$132,535 Vol.
$132,535 Vol.
Oui
$132,535 Vol.
$132,535 Vol.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Middle East energy price surges have lifted Eurozone headline inflation expectations to 2.7% for 2026, prompting the ECB to signal data-dependent tightening and markets to price a near-certain 25-basis-point deposit rate increase at the June 2026 meeting. Professional forecasters and futures markets now embed at least one hike this year to anchor expectations amid the shock, with the Governing Council’s meeting-by-meeting approach leaving scope for further action if core pressures persist. Trader consensus at 99.6% on a 2026 hike reflects this repricing, though faster commodity declines, subdued demand, or contained second-round effects could still allow the bank to hold its current stance through year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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