Flavio Bolsonaro's August 5 announcement naming federal deputy Alfredo Gaspar as his Liberal Party running mate for Brazil's October presidential election has driven the market's overwhelming consensus around Gaspar. The selection concluded weeks of internal discussions within the PL, where Gaspar's profile as a former prosecutor and public security official from Alagoas aligned with party priorities on security and anti-corruption themes. Earlier speculation had included efforts to add a female candidate for broader appeal, but those attempts did not materialize amid limited coalition support from other center-right parties. With the ticket now formally set ahead of party conventions, alternative names face significant structural barriers to entry. Late shifts remain possible only through unforeseen legal challenges or ticket revisions before the election filing deadline.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAlfredo Gaspar 96.5%
Michelle Bolsonaro 1.1%
Simone Marquetto <1%
Clarissa Tércio <1%

Alfredo Gaspar
97%

Michelle Bolsonaro
1%

Simone Marquetto
1%

Clarissa Tércio
1%

Daniella Marques
1%

Marcos Pontes
<1%

Júlia Zanatta
<1%

Priscila Costa
<1%

Tereza Cristina
<1%

Damares Alves
<1%

Renata Abreu
<1%

Gilson Machado
<1%

Bia Kicis
<1%

Rosana Valle
<1%

Rogério Marinho
<1%
Alfredo Gaspar 96.5%
Michelle Bolsonaro 1.1%
Simone Marquetto <1%
Clarissa Tércio <1%

Alfredo Gaspar
97%

Michelle Bolsonaro
1%

Simone Marquetto
1%

Clarissa Tércio
1%

Daniella Marques
1%

Marcos Pontes
<1%

Júlia Zanatta
<1%

Priscila Costa
<1%

Tereza Cristina
<1%

Damares Alves
<1%

Renata Abreu
<1%

Gilson Machado
<1%

Bia Kicis
<1%

Rosana Valle
<1%

Rogério Marinho
<1%
An announcement of candidate selection will not alone qualify.
If Flavio Bolsonaro does not officially file a registration request to contest the 2026 Brazil presidential elections by August 15, 2026, 11:59 Brasilia time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
Any subsequent substitution, replacement, withdrawal, disqualification, or other change to the initially registered vice-presidential candidate will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Brazil, including the Superior Electoral Court (TSE, https://divulgacandcontas.tse.jus.br/).
Marché ouvert : Aug 4, 2026, 12:08 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...An announcement of candidate selection will not alone qualify.
If Flavio Bolsonaro does not officially file a registration request to contest the 2026 Brazil presidential elections by August 15, 2026, 11:59 Brasilia time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
Any subsequent substitution, replacement, withdrawal, disqualification, or other change to the initially registered vice-presidential candidate will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Brazil, including the Superior Electoral Court (TSE, https://divulgacandcontas.tse.jus.br/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Flavio Bolsonaro's August 5 announcement naming federal deputy Alfredo Gaspar as his Liberal Party running mate for Brazil's October presidential election has driven the market's overwhelming consensus around Gaspar. The selection concluded weeks of internal discussions within the PL, where Gaspar's profile as a former prosecutor and public security official from Alagoas aligned with party priorities on security and anti-corruption themes. Earlier speculation had included efforts to add a female candidate for broader appeal, but those attempts did not materialize amid limited coalition support from other center-right parties. With the ticket now formally set ahead of party conventions, alternative names face significant structural barriers to entry. Late shifts remain possible only through unforeseen legal challenges or ticket revisions before the election filing deadline.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour


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