Ashley Moody holds a commanding position in the November 2026 special election for Florida’s U.S. Senate seat, with traders assigning her a 91.5% implied probability of victory over Angie Nixon. Moody’s advantages stem from Florida’s consistent Republican tilt, demonstrated by the state’s 13-point margin for Donald Trump in 2024, her appointment to the seat vacated by Marco Rubio, and a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $8 million in cash on hand. Nixon’s August primary upset over Alex Vindman highlighted Democratic base mobilization but also reinforced perceptions of a progressive profile that has struggled statewide. Recent polling shows Moody ahead by roughly 8 points among likely voters, aligning with forecaster ratings of the race as safe or likely Republican. Potential shifts could arise from late-breaking scandals, unusually high Democratic turnout, or national political realignments that alter the current voter coalition before Election Day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$108,239 Vol.
$108,239 Vol.
Ashley Moody (R)
92%
Angie Nixon (D)
8%
$108,239 Vol.
$108,239 Vol.
Ashley Moody (R)
$52,907 Vol.
92%
Angie Nixon (D)
$55,332 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Ashley Moody holds a commanding position in the November 2026 special election for Florida’s U.S. Senate seat, with traders assigning her a 91.5% implied probability of victory over Angie Nixon. Moody’s advantages stem from Florida’s consistent Republican tilt, demonstrated by the state’s 13-point margin for Donald Trump in 2024, her appointment to the seat vacated by Marco Rubio, and a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $8 million in cash on hand. Nixon’s August primary upset over Alex Vindman highlighted Democratic base mobilization but also reinforced perceptions of a progressive profile that has struggled statewide. Recent polling shows Moody ahead by roughly 8 points among likely voters, aligning with forecaster ratings of the race as safe or likely Republican. Potential shifts could arise from late-breaking scandals, unusually high Democratic turnout, or national political realignments that alter the current voter coalition before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Marché ouvert : Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ET
Volume
$108,239Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Ashley Moody holds a commanding position in the November 2026 special election for Florida’s U.S. Senate seat, with traders assigning her a 91.5% implied probability of victory over Angie Nixon. Moody’s advantages stem from Florida’s consistent Republican tilt, demonstrated by the state’s 13-point margin for Donald Trump in 2024, her appointment to the seat vacated by Marco Rubio, and a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $8 million in cash on hand. Nixon’s August primary upset over Alex Vindman highlighted Democratic base mobilization but also reinforced perceptions of a progressive profile that has struggled statewide. Recent polling shows Moody ahead by roughly 8 points among likely voters, aligning with forecaster ratings of the race as safe or likely Republican. Potential shifts could arise from late-breaking scandals, unusually high Democratic turnout, or national political realignments that alter the current voter coalition before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$108,239Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Ashley Moody holds a commanding position in the November 2026 special election for Florida’s U.S. Senate seat, with traders assigning her a 91.5% implied probability of victory over Angie Nixon. Moody’s advantages stem from Florida’s consistent Republican tilt, demonstrated by the state’s 13-point margin for Donald Trump in 2024, her appointment to the seat vacated by Marco Rubio, and a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $8 million in cash on hand. Nixon’s August primary upset over Alex Vindman highlighted Democratic base mobilization but also reinforced perceptions of a progressive profile that has struggled statewide. Recent polling shows Moody ahead by roughly 8 points among likely voters, aligning with forecaster ratings of the race as safe or likely Republican. Potential shifts could arise from late-breaking scandals, unusually high Democratic turnout, or national political realignments that alter the current voter coalition before Election Day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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