Recent weather model consensus for Chengdu points to a peak temperature of 32–34°C on August 8, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around 33°C (31.5%), 34°C (22%), and 32°C (21.5%). Subtropical high pressure combined with scattered showers and persistent humidity is expected to limit full solar heating while preventing rapid cooling, producing this narrow range. Official guidance from Chinese meteorological services highlights typical early-August variability driven by monsoon moisture and local topography, where even modest increases in cloud cover can shave 1–2°C off the daily maximum. Traders appear to weigh these short-term forecast adjustments more heavily than longer-term climatology, which shows August averages near 31–33°C. Updated model runs and any last-minute changes in precipitation timing remain the key variables that could shift the implied probabilities before resolution.