Recent cold front approaches from the south are moderating expectations for São Paulo’s August 7 maximum, keeping market-implied odds tightly clustered between 25 °C and 26 °C. Official forecasts from INMET and regional models indicate the front will reach the coast Friday, introducing cooler maritime air and increased cloud cover that should cap daytime heating near seasonal norms of 24–26 °C rather than allowing continuation of the recent 27–28 °C readings. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread on frontal timing and strength, with drier air ahead potentially permitting brief afternoon warming if the boundary stalls. Traders therefore price the highest probability on the narrow 24–27 °C band, reflecting uncertainty in exact frontal arrival and local boundary-layer mixing.