Recent Central Weather Administration and AccuWeather model runs point to peak daytime heating near 35–37 °C on August 3, driven by typical late-summer subtropical flow, strong insolation, and Taipei’s urban heat island. With seasonal normals around 32 °C and recent days already reaching 35–37 °C under mostly clear or partly cloudy skies, traders assign the highest probability to 37 °C. Any increase in afternoon convection or typhoon-related moisture could cap the maximum a degree or two lower, while continued dry, stable conditions would favor the upper end of the range. Updated high-resolution guidance and official CWA bulletins over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts for shifts in these market-implied odds.