Recent JMA forecasts indicate cloudy skies over Tokyo on August 3, 2026, which are expected to limit daytime heating and keep the maximum temperature near or slightly below the early-August normal of 31.8 °C. This outlook, combined with model consensus showing highs in the mid-to-upper 20s °C, underpins trader preference for the 26–28 °C range that currently holds roughly 87 % combined implied probability. Persistent humidity and the absence of strong insolation or warm-air advection further cap upside potential, while the low probabilities assigned to 29 °C and above reflect limited scope for rapid clearing or intensification before the market resolves. Updated short-range guidance and any last-minute changes in cloud cover remain the key near-term catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Tokyo le 3 août ?
La température la plus élevée à Tokyo le 3 août ?
27°C 38%
26°C 25%
28°C 25%
29°C 9%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 août 2026
22°C or below
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
6%
26°C
25%
27°C
38%
28°C
25%
29°C
9%
30°C
4%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
1%
27°C 38%
26°C 25%
28°C 25%
29°C 9%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 août 2026
22°C or below
$239 Vol.
1%
23°C
$264 Vol.
1%
24°C
$704 Vol.
2%
25°C
$82 Vol.
6%
26°C
$346 Vol.
25%
27°C
$677 Vol.
38%
28°C
$89 Vol.
25%
29°C
$78 Vol.
9%
30°C
$106 Vol.
4%
31°C
$216 Vol.
1%
32°C or higher
$144 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA forecasts indicate cloudy skies over Tokyo on August 3, 2026, which are expected to limit daytime heating and keep the maximum temperature near or slightly below the early-August normal of 31.8 °C. This outlook, combined with model consensus showing highs in the mid-to-upper 20s °C, underpins trader preference for the 26–28 °C range that currently holds roughly 87 % combined implied probability. Persistent humidity and the absence of strong insolation or warm-air advection further cap upside potential, while the low probabilities assigned to 29 °C and above reflect limited scope for rapid clearing or intensification before the market resolves. Updated short-range guidance and any last-minute changes in cloud cover remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$2,945Date de fin
3 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA forecasts indicate cloudy skies over Tokyo on August 3, 2026, which are expected to limit daytime heating and keep the maximum temperature near or slightly below the early-August normal of 31.8 °C. This outlook, combined with model consensus showing highs in the mid-to-upper 20s °C, underpins trader preference for the 26–28 °C range that currently holds roughly 87 % combined implied probability. Persistent humidity and the absence of strong insolation or warm-air advection further cap upside potential, while the low probabilities assigned to 29 °C and above reflect limited scope for rapid clearing or intensification before the market resolves. Updated short-range guidance and any last-minute changes in cloud cover remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,945Date de fin
3 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent JMA forecasts indicate cloudy skies over Tokyo on August 3, 2026, which are expected to limit daytime heating and keep the maximum temperature near or slightly below the early-August normal of 31.8 °C. This outlook, combined with model consensus showing highs in the mid-to-upper 20s °C, underpins trader preference for the 26–28 °C range that currently holds roughly 87 % combined implied probability. Persistent humidity and the absence of strong insolation or warm-air advection further cap upside potential, while the low probabilities assigned to 29 °C and above reflect limited scope for rapid clearing or intensification before the market resolves. Updated short-range guidance and any last-minute changes in cloud cover remain the key near-term catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes