Current forecasts from meteorological models point to a maximum temperature near 23–24°C in Warsaw on August 8 under mostly sunny conditions with light winds, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes at 45.5% and 27.5% implied probability. These probabilities reflect trader assessment of ensemble guidance showing stable high pressure and modest daytime heating typical for early August, when Warsaw’s climatological average peaks around 23–25°C. Recent observations from the prior days indicate no strong warming trend or incoming frontal systems that would push readings higher, while minor model spread on cloud cover keeps a small chance for 22°C in play. Official resolution will depend on IMGW station readings, with any late forecast adjustments from updated runs likely to influence remaining liquidity.