Trader sentiment on Wellington's March 25 high temperature clusters tightly around 18-19°C at 44.5% combined implied probability, driven by MetService's latest forecast pinpointing 19°C under a weak southerly airflow capping seasonal norms near 20°C. Differentiating factors include ensemble model spreads—ECMWF leans warmer with clearer skies (favoring 20-21°C), while GFS shows cooler cloudier outcomes (16-17°C)—exacerbated by coastal sea breeze timing and low-pressure trough proximity. Historical March 25 highs average 19.5°C but vary 5°C annually due to wind regimes; upcoming 48-hour updates could shift odds as frontal decay clarifies. Baseline uncertainty reflects Wellington's microclimate volatility.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Wellington on March 25?
Highest temperature in Wellington on March 25?
19°C 23%
18°C 22%
21°C 18%
17°C 17%
13°C or below
1%
14°C
4%
15°C
9%
16°C
16%
17°C
17%
18°C
22%
19°C
23%
20°C
10%
21°C
18%
22°C
11%
23°C or higher
8%
19°C 23%
18°C 22%
21°C 18%
17°C 17%
13°C or below
1%
14°C
4%
15°C
9%
16°C
16%
17°C
17%
18°C
22%
19°C
23%
20°C
10%
21°C
18%
22°C
11%
23°C or higher
8%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 21, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Wellington's March 25 high temperature clusters tightly around 18-19°C at 44.5% combined implied probability, driven by MetService's latest forecast pinpointing 19°C under a weak southerly airflow capping seasonal norms near 20°C. Differentiating factors include ensemble model spreads—ECMWF leans warmer with clearer skies (favoring 20-21°C), while GFS shows cooler cloudier outcomes (16-17°C)—exacerbated by coastal sea breeze timing and low-pressure trough proximity. Historical March 25 highs average 19.5°C but vary 5°C annually due to wind regimes; upcoming 48-hour updates could shift odds as frontal decay clarifies. Baseline uncertainty reflects Wellington's microclimate volatility.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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