Trader sentiment for Austin's March 25 high temperature reflects tight uncertainty in ensemble weather models, with NOAA's GFS and ECMWF forecasts converging on 86-91°F amid a persistent upper-level ridge amplifying adiabatic warming over dry soils. The 25.5% implied probability for 83°F or below stems from potential afternoon cloud cover or weak cold air advection hinted in the 00Z GFS run, contrasting 18% odds for 90-91°F driven by European model bias toward stronger subsidence and urban heat island effects in Austin. Historical March averages hover near 75°F, but recent soundings show low dewpoints favoring highs 10-15°F above normal; watch 12Z updates for resolution shifts before peak heating around 3 PM CDT.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Austin on March 25?
Highest temperature in Austin on March 25?
83°F or below 26%
90-91°F 18%
88-89°F 18%
86-87°F 17%
83°F or below
26%
84-85°F
17%
86-87°F
17%
88-89°F
18%
90-91°F
18%
92-93°F
17%
94-95°F
17%
96-97°F
17%
98-99°F
14%
100-101°F
12%
102°F or higher
2%
83°F or below 26%
90-91°F 18%
88-89°F 18%
86-87°F 17%
83°F or below
26%
84-85°F
17%
86-87°F
17%
88-89°F
18%
90-91°F
18%
92-93°F
17%
94-95°F
17%
96-97°F
17%
98-99°F
14%
100-101°F
12%
102°F or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 21, 2026, 6:30 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Austin's March 25 high temperature reflects tight uncertainty in ensemble weather models, with NOAA's GFS and ECMWF forecasts converging on 86-91°F amid a persistent upper-level ridge amplifying adiabatic warming over dry soils. The 25.5% implied probability for 83°F or below stems from potential afternoon cloud cover or weak cold air advection hinted in the 00Z GFS run, contrasting 18% odds for 90-91°F driven by European model bias toward stronger subsidence and urban heat island effects in Austin. Historical March averages hover near 75°F, but recent soundings show low dewpoints favoring highs 10-15°F above normal; watch 12Z updates for resolution shifts before peak heating around 3 PM CDT.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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