Latest ensemble forecasts from leading models like ECMWF and GFS point to Seoul's March 22 high temperature clustering tightly between 12-14°C, fueling the narrow trader consensus with 14°C+ at 32.5%, 12°C at 26%, and 13°C at 23.5%. Korea Meteorological Administration's short-range outlook leans toward 13°C amid a weakening Siberian High allowing mild southerly airflow, though divergent model runs highlight uncertainty from potential cloud cover and jet stream positioning that could cap peaks at 12°C or push above 14°C. Historical March averages hover near 11°C, but recent mild trends and high-pressure ridge forecasts tilt odds warmer, with final KMA updates tomorrow as the key differentiator for resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Seoul on March 22?
Highest temperature in Seoul on March 22?
14°C or higher 33%
12°C 26%
13°C 24%
11°C 11%
$123,479 Vol.
$123,479 Vol.
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
1%
7°C
1%
8°C
2%
9°C
2%
10°C
4%
11°C
11%
12°C
26%
13°C
24%
14°C or higher
33%
14°C or higher 33%
12°C 26%
13°C 24%
11°C 11%
$123,479 Vol.
$123,479 Vol.
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
1%
7°C
1%
8°C
2%
9°C
2%
10°C
4%
11°C
11%
12°C
26%
13°C
24%
14°C or higher
33%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from leading models like ECMWF and GFS point to Seoul's March 22 high temperature clustering tightly between 12-14°C, fueling the narrow trader consensus with 14°C+ at 32.5%, 12°C at 26%, and 13°C at 23.5%. Korea Meteorological Administration's short-range outlook leans toward 13°C amid a weakening Siberian High allowing mild southerly airflow, though divergent model runs highlight uncertainty from potential cloud cover and jet stream positioning that could cap peaks at 12°C or push above 14°C. Historical March averages hover near 11°C, but recent mild trends and high-pressure ridge forecasts tilt odds warmer, with final KMA updates tomorrow as the key differentiator for resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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