Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a Taipei high of 23°C on March 20, driven by Central Weather Administration forecasts showing mostly cloudy skies and northeasterly winds capping temperatures around that mark amid a lingering cool front. Historical March data for Taipei averages 21-24°C highs, aligning with current model outputs from ECMWF and GFS that predict light showers and highs no warmer than 23°C under overcast conditions. This positioning reflects low volatility in short-range forecasts, with 97.9% implied probability. Challenges could arise from unexpected clearing or weakened winds, potentially allowing solar heating to push toward 24-25°C as seen in occasional frontal breakdowns, though ensemble models show minimal support for such shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Taipei le 20 mars ?
La température la plus élevée à Taipei le 20 mars ?
23°C 98.0%
24°C 1.4%
26°C 1.0%
25°C <1%
$71,438 Vol.
$71,438 Vol.
22°C
<1%
23°C
98%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
<1%
28°C ou plus
<1%
23°C 98.0%
24°C 1.4%
26°C 1.0%
25°C <1%
$71,438 Vol.
$71,438 Vol.
22°C
<1%
23°C
98%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
<1%
28°C ou plus
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Taipei Central Weather Administration, specifically the highest reading under the "Temperature" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.cwa.gov.tw/V8/C/W/OBS_Station.html?ID=46692
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 2:27 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a Taipei high of 23°C on March 20, driven by Central Weather Administration forecasts showing mostly cloudy skies and northeasterly winds capping temperatures around that mark amid a lingering cool front. Historical March data for Taipei averages 21-24°C highs, aligning with current model outputs from ECMWF and GFS that predict light showers and highs no warmer than 23°C under overcast conditions. This positioning reflects low volatility in short-range forecasts, with 97.9% implied probability. Challenges could arise from unexpected clearing or weakened winds, potentially allowing solar heating to push toward 24-25°C as seen in occasional frontal breakdowns, though ensemble models show minimal support for such shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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