Trader sentiment for Chengdu's March 24 high temperature remains fragmented, with 21°C or higher leading at 26% implied probability due to the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts signaling a mild southerly airflow pushing peaks toward 19-21°C, outpacing cooler 15-18°C options clustered at 25.5%. Historical late-March averages hover around 17°C in the Sichuan Basin, where nocturnal radiation and low wind enhance daytime warming, but model spread introduces uncertainty—drier conditions favor upper-end outcomes like 20°C (18%), while potential stratus clouds or weak fronts could cap at 15-16°C. Key differentiator: minimal precipitation risk (under 20%) per CMA updates, tilting odds warmer absent cold air advection. Watch tomorrow's 12Z model runs for resolution shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Chengdu on March 24?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on March 24?
21°C or higher 26%
12°C 26%
13°C 26%
14°C 26%
11°C ou moins
18%
12°C
26%
13°C
26%
14°C
26%
15°C
26%
16°C
26%
17°C
26%
18°C
26%
19°C
26%
20°C
18%
21°C or higher
26%
21°C or higher 26%
12°C 26%
13°C 26%
14°C 26%
11°C ou moins
18%
12°C
26%
13°C
26%
14°C
26%
15°C
26%
16°C
26%
17°C
26%
18°C
26%
19°C
26%
20°C
18%
21°C or higher
26%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 7:05 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Chengdu's March 24 high temperature remains fragmented, with 21°C or higher leading at 26% implied probability due to the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts signaling a mild southerly airflow pushing peaks toward 19-21°C, outpacing cooler 15-18°C options clustered at 25.5%. Historical late-March averages hover around 17°C in the Sichuan Basin, where nocturnal radiation and low wind enhance daytime warming, but model spread introduces uncertainty—drier conditions favor upper-end outcomes like 20°C (18%), while potential stratus clouds or weak fronts could cap at 15-16°C. Key differentiator: minimal precipitation risk (under 20%) per CMA updates, tilting odds warmer absent cold air advection. Watch tomorrow's 12Z model runs for resolution shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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