Trader uncertainty drives the even 25.5% odds across Beijing's March 24 high temperature options, from 15°C or below to 25°C+, reflecting spring's volatile weather transition. Late March highs at Beijing Capital International Airport average 13°C historically, per China Meteorological Administration data, but urban heat island effects and recent warming trends have pushed outliers to 22°C+. Current ECMWF and GFS ensembles diverge sharply: warmer runs forecast southerly winds advecting mild air for 20-25°C peaks, while cooler members predict Mongolian cold fronts and jet stream dips capping at 15-18°C. Cloud cover and frontal timing differentiate outcomes; monitor 12Z forecast updates, as resolution hinges on observed upper-air patterns today.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Beijing on March 24?
Highest temperature in Beijing on March 24?
15°C or below 26%
16°C 26%
17°C 26%
18°C 26%
15°C or below
26%
16°C
26%
17°C
26%
18°C
26%
19°C
26%
20°C
26%
21°C
26%
22°C
26%
23°C
26%
24°C
26%
25°C or higher
26%
15°C or below 26%
16°C 26%
17°C 26%
18°C 26%
15°C or below
26%
16°C
26%
17°C
26%
18°C
26%
19°C
26%
20°C
26%
21°C
26%
22°C
26%
23°C
26%
24°C
26%
25°C or higher
26%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader uncertainty drives the even 25.5% odds across Beijing's March 24 high temperature options, from 15°C or below to 25°C+, reflecting spring's volatile weather transition. Late March highs at Beijing Capital International Airport average 13°C historically, per China Meteorological Administration data, but urban heat island effects and recent warming trends have pushed outliers to 22°C+. Current ECMWF and GFS ensembles diverge sharply: warmer runs forecast southerly winds advecting mild air for 20-25°C peaks, while cooler members predict Mongolian cold fronts and jet stream dips capping at 15-18°C. Cloud cover and frontal timing differentiate outcomes; monitor 12Z forecast updates, as resolution hinges on observed upper-air patterns today.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes