Trader sentiment for Wuhan's March 22 high temperature remains fragmented, with 21°C edging out at 26% amid near-equal odds across 14–24°C+ bins, driven by divergent short-range model outputs from ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration ensembles. Recent updates show a stalled frontal boundary over central China introducing variability, with cooler GFS runs clustering 16–18°C probabilities due to northerly winds, while warmer ECMWF signals (influenced by urban heat island effects in Wuhan) push toward 20–22°C amid partial cloud breaks. Historical March baselines average 17°C highs, but diurnal fluctuations and model spread of ±4°C underscore resolution risk until 12-hour forecasts solidify post-midnight. Watch CMA 0600 UTC release for pivotal shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Wuhan on March 22?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on March 22?
21°C 26%
14°C or below 26%
15°C 26%
16°C 26%
14°C or below
26%
15°C
26%
16°C
26%
17°C
26%
18°C
26%
19°C
26%
20°C
26%
21°C
26%
22°C
26%
23°C
26%
24°C or higher
26%
21°C 26%
14°C or below 26%
15°C 26%
16°C 26%
14°C or below
26%
15°C
26%
16°C
26%
17°C
26%
18°C
26%
19°C
26%
20°C
26%
21°C
26%
22°C
26%
23°C
26%
24°C or higher
26%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 6:59 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Wuhan's March 22 high temperature remains fragmented, with 21°C edging out at 26% amid near-equal odds across 14–24°C+ bins, driven by divergent short-range model outputs from ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration ensembles. Recent updates show a stalled frontal boundary over central China introducing variability, with cooler GFS runs clustering 16–18°C probabilities due to northerly winds, while warmer ECMWF signals (influenced by urban heat island effects in Wuhan) push toward 20–22°C amid partial cloud breaks. Historical March baselines average 17°C highs, but diurnal fluctuations and model spread of ±4°C underscore resolution risk until 12-hour forecasts solidify post-midnight. Watch CMA 0600 UTC release for pivotal shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes