Trader sentiment for Chengdu's March 23 highest temperature remains tightly clustered across outcomes from 9°C to 19°C+, reflecting high uncertainty in short-range weather models amid conflicting signals from recent mild advection and an approaching shortwave trough. China Meteorological Administration forecasts center on 15-17°C, aligning with GFS and ECMWF ensemble means around 16°C, but spread widens to ±4°C due to Sichuan Basin's thermal inversion layers that amplify cold pool persistence under northerly winds—favoring 11-13°C—versus southerly flows sustaining 17-19°C. Historical March highs average 16.5°C with 25% variability; monitor 12Z model runs and upstream cold air depth for pivotal shifts differentiating these near-even implied probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Chengdu on March 23?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on March 23?
19°C or higher 26%
9°C or below 26%
10°C 26%
11°C 26%
9°C or below
26%
10°C
26%
11°C
26%
12°C
26%
13°C
26%
14°C
26%
15°C
26%
16°C
26%
17°C
26%
18°C
26%
19°C or higher
26%
19°C or higher 26%
9°C or below 26%
10°C 26%
11°C 26%
9°C or below
26%
10°C
26%
11°C
26%
12°C
26%
13°C
26%
14°C
26%
15°C
26%
16°C
26%
17°C
26%
18°C
26%
19°C or higher
26%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Chengdu's March 23 highest temperature remains tightly clustered across outcomes from 9°C to 19°C+, reflecting high uncertainty in short-range weather models amid conflicting signals from recent mild advection and an approaching shortwave trough. China Meteorological Administration forecasts center on 15-17°C, aligning with GFS and ECMWF ensemble means around 16°C, but spread widens to ±4°C due to Sichuan Basin's thermal inversion layers that amplify cold pool persistence under northerly winds—favoring 11-13°C—versus southerly flows sustaining 17-19°C. Historical March highs average 16.5°C with 25% variability; monitor 12Z model runs and upstream cold air depth for pivotal shifts differentiating these near-even implied probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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