Trader consensus reflects tight uncertainty in Chengdu's spring weather patterns, with ensemble forecasts from major models like ECMWF and GFS projecting peak highs between 18-22°C on March 21, driven by mild southerly winds and partial cloud cover limiting extremes. Recent developments, including updated CMA guidance showing a 19-21°C cluster amid low-pressure troughing, explain the even 25.5% odds across 16-23°C options, as small variances in afternoon insolation or urban heat island effects could nudge the maximum by 1-2°C. Lower odds for 24°C+ (18%) stem from historical March baselines averaging 17°C, while sub-16°C tails off due to absent cold fronts per satellite imagery. Watch tomorrow's 12Z model runs for resolution shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Chengdu on March 21?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on March 21?
19°C 44%
20°C 27%
21°C 27%
16°C 26%
14°C ou moins
2%
15°C
14%
16°C
26%
17°C
26%
18°C
26%
19°C
28%
20°C
27%
21°C
27%
22°C
26%
23°C
26%
24°C or higher
7%
19°C 44%
20°C 27%
21°C 27%
16°C 26%
14°C ou moins
2%
15°C
14%
16°C
26%
17°C
26%
18°C
26%
19°C
28%
20°C
27%
21°C
27%
22°C
26%
23°C
26%
24°C or higher
7%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 6:59 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus reflects tight uncertainty in Chengdu's spring weather patterns, with ensemble forecasts from major models like ECMWF and GFS projecting peak highs between 18-22°C on March 21, driven by mild southerly winds and partial cloud cover limiting extremes. Recent developments, including updated CMA guidance showing a 19-21°C cluster amid low-pressure troughing, explain the even 25.5% odds across 16-23°C options, as small variances in afternoon insolation or urban heat island effects could nudge the maximum by 1-2°C. Lower odds for 24°C+ (18%) stem from historical March baselines averaging 17°C, while sub-16°C tails off due to absent cold fronts per satellite imagery. Watch tomorrow's 12Z model runs for resolution shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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