Uniform market-implied probabilities across temperatures from 11°C or below to 21°C or higher reflect high uncertainty in ensemble weather models for Wuhan's March 23 high, driven by conflicting GFS and ECMWF forecasts amid a volatile spring pattern. Historical data from the China Meteorological Administration shows average March highs around 16°C, but recent developments—a southward-moving cold front from Siberia clashing with mild southerly flows—have widened the predicted spread to 11–19°C, per latest 00Z runs. Differentiating factors include jet stream undulations amplifying frontal contrasts and Wuhan's Yangtze River location enhancing moisture-driven variability; traders await afternoon CMA updates, as small shifts in boundary layer stability could tip outcomes toward cooler 12–15°C consensus or warmer outliers.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Wuhan on March 23?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on March 23?
11°C or below 26%
12°C 26%
13°C 26%
14°C 26%
11°C or below
26%
12°C
26%
13°C
26%
14°C
26%
15°C
26%
16°C
26%
17°C
26%
18°C
26%
19°C
26%
20°C
26%
21°C or higher
26%
11°C or below 26%
12°C 26%
13°C 26%
14°C 26%
11°C or below
26%
12°C
26%
13°C
26%
14°C
26%
15°C
26%
16°C
26%
17°C
26%
18°C
26%
19°C
26%
20°C
26%
21°C or higher
26%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Uniform market-implied probabilities across temperatures from 11°C or below to 21°C or higher reflect high uncertainty in ensemble weather models for Wuhan's March 23 high, driven by conflicting GFS and ECMWF forecasts amid a volatile spring pattern. Historical data from the China Meteorological Administration shows average March highs around 16°C, but recent developments—a southward-moving cold front from Siberia clashing with mild southerly flows—have widened the predicted spread to 11–19°C, per latest 00Z runs. Differentiating factors include jet stream undulations amplifying frontal contrasts and Wuhan's Yangtze River location enhancing moisture-driven variability; traders await afternoon CMA updates, as small shifts in boundary layer stability could tip outcomes toward cooler 12–15°C consensus or warmer outliers.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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