Trader sentiment for Beijing's highest temperature on March 22 remains tightly clustered around 21-23°C at 26-27.5% implied probabilities, driven by divergent short-range forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models showing ensemble means near 22°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge fostering southerly winds and above-normal warmth. Recent developments include a +5-8°C anomaly from seasonal averages (historical March 22 high ~13°C), amplified by Beijing's urban heat island effect, but cloud cover from an approaching trough introduces 1-2°C downside risk favoring 20°C or below at 25.5%. Official China Meteorological Administration updates and airport observations will be decisive, as model spread highlights uncertainty in peak-hour insolation and frontal timing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Beijing on March 22?
Highest temperature in Beijing on March 22?
22°C 40%
21°C 27%
20°C 26%
23°C 20%
16°C or below
18%
17°C
18%
18°C
18%
19°C
18%
20°C
26%
21°C
27%
22°C
40%
23°C
20%
24°C
18%
25°C
18%
26°C or higher
14%
22°C 40%
21°C 27%
20°C 26%
23°C 20%
16°C or below
18%
17°C
18%
18°C
18%
19°C
18%
20°C
26%
21°C
27%
22°C
40%
23°C
20%
24°C
18%
25°C
18%
26°C or higher
14%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 6:59 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Beijing's highest temperature on March 22 remains tightly clustered around 21-23°C at 26-27.5% implied probabilities, driven by divergent short-range forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models showing ensemble means near 22°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge fostering southerly winds and above-normal warmth. Recent developments include a +5-8°C anomaly from seasonal averages (historical March 22 high ~13°C), amplified by Beijing's urban heat island effect, but cloud cover from an approaching trough introduces 1-2°C downside risk favoring 20°C or below at 25.5%. Official China Meteorological Administration updates and airport observations will be decisive, as model spread highlights uncertainty in peak-hour insolation and frontal timing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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