Trader consensus heavily favors 21°C (72.5% implied probability) as Chengdu's highest temperature on March 20, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and China Meteorological Administration models, which converge on daytime highs around 21-22°C amid a high-pressure ridge ushering mild spring air into the Sichuan Basin. Recent observations confirm this warming trend, with Chengdu recording 19-20°C highs over the past week, up from cooler early March averages near 16°C, influenced by southerly winds reducing typical fog and inversion layers. Lower probabilities for 22°C (38%) or higher reflect model spread and diurnal variability, while sub-20°C outcomes are negligible given historical March precedents exceeding 20°C in 70% of recent warm spells; traders eye afternoon model updates for final positioning.