Latest NOAA forecast models, including the GFS and ECMWF ensembles, project Miami's March 22 high temperature clustering around 81-83°F under a building subtropical ridge fostering light southerly winds and ample sunshine, driving trader consensus toward the 80-81°F (30.5%) and 82-83°F (25.5%) bins. Differentiating factors include sea breeze timing—earlier onset could cap peaks at 78-79°F (21.0%) via coastal cooling—versus delayed onshore flow allowing mid-80s spikes. Historical March 22 highs average 79.5°F per NOAA records, but recent soundings show drier mid-levels reducing shower interference. Key watch: 2 p.m. ET NWS update, as model spread reflects ±2°F uncertainty from boundary layer mixing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Miami on March 22?
Highest temperature in Miami on March 22?
80-81°F 31%
82-83°F 26%
78-79°F 21%
84-85°F 7%
$77,252 Vol.
$77,252 Vol.
69°F or below
<1%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
2%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
5%
78-79°F
21%
80-81°F
31%
82-83°F
26%
84-85°F
7%
86-87°F
4%
88°F or higher
2%
80-81°F 31%
82-83°F 26%
78-79°F 21%
84-85°F 7%
$77,252 Vol.
$77,252 Vol.
69°F or below
<1%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
2%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
5%
78-79°F
21%
80-81°F
31%
82-83°F
26%
84-85°F
7%
86-87°F
4%
88°F or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest NOAA forecast models, including the GFS and ECMWF ensembles, project Miami's March 22 high temperature clustering around 81-83°F under a building subtropical ridge fostering light southerly winds and ample sunshine, driving trader consensus toward the 80-81°F (30.5%) and 82-83°F (25.5%) bins. Differentiating factors include sea breeze timing—earlier onset could cap peaks at 78-79°F (21.0%) via coastal cooling—versus delayed onshore flow allowing mid-80s spikes. Historical March 22 highs average 79.5°F per NOAA records, but recent soundings show drier mid-levels reducing shower interference. Key watch: 2 p.m. ET NWS update, as model spread reflects ±2°F uncertainty from boundary layer mixing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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