Trader consensus leans toward 12°C as Ankara's highest temperature on March 22, with 34.5% implied probability edging out 11°C at 28.5%, driven by ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models projecting daytime maxima of 11-13°C under a high-pressure ridge bringing mild continental air. Recent updates from the Turkish State Meteorological Service confirm current trends with morning lows around 5°C and light northerly winds limiting advection of warmer air, while variable cloud cover introduces uncertainty that differentiates 13°C (14.5%) from lower outcomes. Historical March data shows average highs of 12°C but high interannual variability (±2°C), amplifying model divergence as the date nears.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Ankara on March 22?
Highest temperature in Ankara on March 22?
12°C 35%
11°C 29%
13°C 15%
10°C 11%
$22,797 Vol.
$22,797 Vol.
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
2%
9°C
2%
10°C
11%
11°C
29%
12°C
35%
13°C
15%
14°C
7%
15°C
3%
16°C or higher
1%
12°C 35%
11°C 29%
13°C 15%
10°C 11%
$22,797 Vol.
$22,797 Vol.
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
2%
9°C
2%
10°C
11%
11°C
29%
12°C
35%
13°C
15%
14°C
7%
15°C
3%
16°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus leans toward 12°C as Ankara's highest temperature on March 22, with 34.5% implied probability edging out 11°C at 28.5%, driven by ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models projecting daytime maxima of 11-13°C under a high-pressure ridge bringing mild continental air. Recent updates from the Turkish State Meteorological Service confirm current trends with morning lows around 5°C and light northerly winds limiting advection of warmer air, while variable cloud cover introduces uncertainty that differentiates 13°C (14.5%) from lower outcomes. Historical March data shows average highs of 12°C but high interannual variability (±2°C), amplifying model divergence as the date nears.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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