Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Ankara's highest temperature on March 23 at 11-12°C, fueling the razor-thin trader split with 29% odds on 12°C and 24.5% on 11°C amid model spread from persistent mid-level clouds and light northerly winds capping peaks. Historical data shows March 23 averages around 12°C, but this year's mild stratospheric polar vortex weakening allows slight warm anomalies, differentiating 13°C (15%) from leaders via upper-ridge uncertainty. Lower outcomes like 9°C (17%) hedge cold front risks per NOAA analogs, though surface dewpoints signal stability; watch 12Z model updates for resolution shifts as verification nears.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Ankara on March 23?
Highest temperature in Ankara on March 23?
12°C 29%
11°C 23%
13°C 15%
10°C 12%
4°C or below
1%
5°C
2%
6°C
5%
7°C
6%
8°C
11%
9°C
17%
10°C
12%
11°C
25%
12°C
29%
13°C
15%
14°C or higher
7%
12°C 29%
11°C 23%
13°C 15%
10°C 12%
4°C or below
1%
5°C
2%
6°C
5%
7°C
6%
8°C
11%
9°C
17%
10°C
12%
11°C
25%
12°C
29%
13°C
15%
14°C or higher
7%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Ankara's highest temperature on March 23 at 11-12°C, fueling the razor-thin trader split with 29% odds on 12°C and 24.5% on 11°C amid model spread from persistent mid-level clouds and light northerly winds capping peaks. Historical data shows March 23 averages around 12°C, but this year's mild stratospheric polar vortex weakening allows slight warm anomalies, differentiating 13°C (15%) from leaders via upper-ridge uncertainty. Lower outcomes like 9°C (17%) hedge cold front risks per NOAA analogs, though surface dewpoints signal stability; watch 12Z model updates for resolution shifts as verification nears.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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