Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a highest temperature of 31°C or below at 47% implied probability, with 32°C close behind at 29%, driven by India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts predicting a maximum around 32°C for Lucknow on March 23 amid dry, clear skies and moderating northerly winds. Recent observations show daytime highs stabilizing in the low 30s°C over the past week, consistent with Lucknow's seasonal norms during the winter-to-summer transition, where average March maxima hover near 31-33°C. Absent heat dome patterns or unusual humidity, models from IMD and global ensembles like ECMWF project limited upside risk beyond 33°C, tempering bets on hotter outcomes despite occasional 1-2°C forecast variances.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Lucknow on March 23?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on March 23?
31°C or below 47%
32°C 29%
33°C 10%
34°C 8%
31°C or below
47%
32°C
29%
33°C
10%
34°C
8%
35°C
8%
36°C
7%
37°C
5%
38°C
4%
39°C
2%
40°C
2%
41°C or higher
1%
31°C or below 47%
32°C 29%
33°C 10%
34°C 8%
31°C or below
47%
32°C
29%
33°C
10%
34°C
8%
35°C
8%
36°C
7%
37°C
5%
38°C
4%
39°C
2%
40°C
2%
41°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a highest temperature of 31°C or below at 47% implied probability, with 32°C close behind at 29%, driven by India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts predicting a maximum around 32°C for Lucknow on March 23 amid dry, clear skies and moderating northerly winds. Recent observations show daytime highs stabilizing in the low 30s°C over the past week, consistent with Lucknow's seasonal norms during the winter-to-summer transition, where average March maxima hover near 31-33°C. Absent heat dome patterns or unusual humidity, models from IMD and global ensembles like ECMWF project limited upside risk beyond 33°C, tempering bets on hotter outcomes despite occasional 1-2°C forecast variances.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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