Ensemble weather models from leading forecasters like ECMWF and GFS drive the neck-and-neck trader odds for Wuhan's March 20 high temperature, with 14°C (46.5%) and 15°C (38%) leading due to consensus projections of 14-16°C amid lingering cool northerly winds and post-frontal cooling following recent showers. The 37.5% on 18°C or higher reflects outlier warmer GFS runs anticipating brief southerly flow and clearer skies boosting solar heating, contrasting cooler ensembles. Historical March data shows Wuhan averages 15-16°C highs with 3-4°C standard deviation, amplifying uncertainty from cloud cover variability and urban heat effects, as traders await 24-hour forecast refinements from China Meteorological Administration.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Wuhan le 20 mars ?
La température la plus élevée à Wuhan le 20 mars ?
14°C 89%
18°C ou plus 40%
16°C 1%
17°C <1%
$13,431 Vol.
$13,431 Vol.
8°C ou moins
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
89%
15°C
29%
16°C
20%
17°C
1%
18°C ou plus
40%
14°C 89%
18°C ou plus 40%
16°C 1%
17°C <1%
$13,431 Vol.
$13,431 Vol.
8°C ou moins
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
89%
15°C
29%
16°C
20%
17°C
1%
18°C ou plus
40%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 6:52 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble weather models from leading forecasters like ECMWF and GFS drive the neck-and-neck trader odds for Wuhan's March 20 high temperature, with 14°C (46.5%) and 15°C (38%) leading due to consensus projections of 14-16°C amid lingering cool northerly winds and post-frontal cooling following recent showers. The 37.5% on 18°C or higher reflects outlier warmer GFS runs anticipating brief southerly flow and clearer skies boosting solar heating, contrasting cooler ensembles. Historical March data shows Wuhan averages 15-16°C highs with 3-4°C standard deviation, amplifying uncertainty from cloud cover variability and urban heat effects, as traders await 24-hour forecast refinements from China Meteorological Administration.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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