Latest NOAA forecast models, including GFS and ECMWF ensembles, drive trader consensus toward Miami's highest temperature on March 25 clustering in the 80-85°F range, with implied probabilities tightly bunched at 27.5% for 80-81°F, 26.5% for 82-83°F, and 24.5% for 84-85°F. A building subtropical ridge aloft promotes sunny skies and efficient afternoon heating, tempered by persistent sea breezes off the warming Atlantic, which cap peaks around 83°F per National Weather Service point forecasts for KMIA. Differentiating factors include minor model spreads on boundary layer moisture—drier air favors 84-85°F, while subtle low-level clouds could shave 2-3°F toward 80-81°F—against March climatological norms of 79°F. Traders eye 18Z model updates for resolution shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Miami on March 25?
Highest temperature in Miami on March 25?
80-81°F 28%
82-83°F 27%
84-85°F 25%
78-79°F 18%
73°F or below
1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
16%
78-79°F
18%
80-81°F
28%
82-83°F
27%
84-85°F
25%
86-87°F
13%
88-89°F
12%
90-91°F
1%
92°F or higher
1%
80-81°F 28%
82-83°F 27%
84-85°F 25%
78-79°F 18%
73°F or below
1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
16%
78-79°F
18%
80-81°F
28%
82-83°F
27%
84-85°F
25%
86-87°F
13%
88-89°F
12%
90-91°F
1%
92°F or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 21, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest NOAA forecast models, including GFS and ECMWF ensembles, drive trader consensus toward Miami's highest temperature on March 25 clustering in the 80-85°F range, with implied probabilities tightly bunched at 27.5% for 80-81°F, 26.5% for 82-83°F, and 24.5% for 84-85°F. A building subtropical ridge aloft promotes sunny skies and efficient afternoon heating, tempered by persistent sea breezes off the warming Atlantic, which cap peaks around 83°F per National Weather Service point forecasts for KMIA. Differentiating factors include minor model spreads on boundary layer moisture—drier air favors 84-85°F, while subtle low-level clouds could shave 2-3°F toward 80-81°F—against March climatological norms of 79°F. Traders eye 18Z model updates for resolution shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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