Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a NYC high of 52-53°F (32.5% implied probability) on March 25, propelled by the National Weather Service's latest forecast pinpointing 52°F at Central Park amid ensemble model agreement from GFS and ECMWF runs averaging 51-53°F. Differentiating factors include subtle model spread: GFS hints at 54°F+ with stronger diurnal heating under ridging aloft, while cooler Euro outputs cap at 50-51°F due to lingering stratocumulus clouds and northerly winds sustaining a post-frontal chill. Historical March 25 averages hover at 52°F, but current upper-air patterns limit upside risks, with traders eyeing tomorrow's 12Z updates for resolution criteria tweaks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in NYC on March 25?
Highest temperature in NYC on March 25?
52-53°F 33%
50-51°F 30%
54-55°F 26%
48-49°F 15%
41°F or below
1%
42-43°F
1%
44-45°F
12%
46-47°F
14%
48-49°F
15%
50-51°F
30%
52-53°F
32%
54-55°F
26%
56-57°F
9%
58-59°F
14%
60°F or higher
14%
52-53°F 33%
50-51°F 30%
54-55°F 26%
48-49°F 15%
41°F or below
1%
42-43°F
1%
44-45°F
12%
46-47°F
14%
48-49°F
15%
50-51°F
30%
52-53°F
32%
54-55°F
26%
56-57°F
9%
58-59°F
14%
60°F or higher
14%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 21, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a NYC high of 52-53°F (32.5% implied probability) on March 25, propelled by the National Weather Service's latest forecast pinpointing 52°F at Central Park amid ensemble model agreement from GFS and ECMWF runs averaging 51-53°F. Differentiating factors include subtle model spread: GFS hints at 54°F+ with stronger diurnal heating under ridging aloft, while cooler Euro outputs cap at 50-51°F due to lingering stratocumulus clouds and northerly winds sustaining a post-frontal chill. Historical March 25 averages hover at 52°F, but current upper-air patterns limit upside risks, with traders eyeing tomorrow's 12Z updates for resolution criteria tweaks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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