Trader sentiment on Houston's March 25 high temperature splits evenly between cool (75°F or below) and extreme heat (94°F or higher) at 25.5% each, driven by stark model disagreements in NOAA's GFS and ECMWF ensembles, where 00Z runs favor a potent upper-ridge amplifying subsidence warming to 95°F+ under clear skies and Gulf inflow, while 12Z updates hint at lingering cloud decks or weak cold-air advection capping peaks near 75°F. Historical March baselines average 75°F at IAH, but spring variability—tied to jet stream waviness and urban heat island effects—widens the spread, with mid-range bids (82-93°F) gaining from blended probabilities amid upcoming 18Z forecast refinements critical for resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Houston on March 25?
Highest temperature in Houston on March 25?
82-83°F 17%
84-85°F 17%
86-87°F 17%
88-89°F 17%
75°F or below
2%
76-77°F
12%
78-79°F
14%
80-81°F
17%
82-83°F
17%
84-85°F
17%
86-87°F
17%
88-89°F
17%
90-91°F
17%
92-93°F
17%
94°F or higher
3%
82-83°F 17%
84-85°F 17%
86-87°F 17%
88-89°F 17%
75°F or below
2%
76-77°F
12%
78-79°F
14%
80-81°F
17%
82-83°F
17%
84-85°F
17%
86-87°F
17%
88-89°F
17%
90-91°F
17%
92-93°F
17%
94°F or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 21, 2026, 6:15 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Houston's March 25 high temperature splits evenly between cool (75°F or below) and extreme heat (94°F or higher) at 25.5% each, driven by stark model disagreements in NOAA's GFS and ECMWF ensembles, where 00Z runs favor a potent upper-ridge amplifying subsidence warming to 95°F+ under clear skies and Gulf inflow, while 12Z updates hint at lingering cloud decks or weak cold-air advection capping peaks near 75°F. Historical March baselines average 75°F at IAH, but spring variability—tied to jet stream waviness and urban heat island effects—widens the spread, with mid-range bids (82-93°F) gaining from blended probabilities amid upcoming 18Z forecast refinements critical for resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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