Latest ensemble forecasts from NOAA and ECMWF models drive the tight clustering of trader odds around 84-93°F for Austin's March 24 high, implying a 98% market consensus for at least 82°F amid a strengthening high-pressure ridge over Texas fostering southerly winds and adiabatic warming. Divergence stems from subtle differences in boundary layer mixing and Gulf moisture advection—GFS runs favor 86-89°F with clearer skies, while cooler EURO variants at 84-87°F account for potential mid-level clouds, against Austin's March climatology of 74°F averages but frequent 90°F+ spikes under similar ridging. Upcoming 12z model updates could sharpen implied probabilities as traders weigh resolution to official observations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Austin on March 24?
Highest temperature in Austin on March 24?
84-85°F 20%
86-87°F 20%
88-89°F 20%
90-91°F 20%
79°F or below
8%
80-81°F
10%
82-83°F
18%
84-85°F
20%
86-87°F
20%
88-89°F
20%
90-91°F
20%
92-93°F
18%
94-95°F
18%
96-97°F
18%
98°F or higher
8%
84-85°F 20%
86-87°F 20%
88-89°F 20%
90-91°F 20%
79°F or below
8%
80-81°F
10%
82-83°F
18%
84-85°F
20%
86-87°F
20%
88-89°F
20%
90-91°F
20%
92-93°F
18%
94-95°F
18%
96-97°F
18%
98°F or higher
8%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 20, 2026, 6:25 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from NOAA and ECMWF models drive the tight clustering of trader odds around 84-93°F for Austin's March 24 high, implying a 98% market consensus for at least 82°F amid a strengthening high-pressure ridge over Texas fostering southerly winds and adiabatic warming. Divergence stems from subtle differences in boundary layer mixing and Gulf moisture advection—GFS runs favor 86-89°F with clearer skies, while cooler EURO variants at 84-87°F account for potential mid-level clouds, against Austin's March climatology of 74°F averages but frequent 90°F+ spikes under similar ridging. Upcoming 12z model updates could sharpen implied probabilities as traders weigh resolution to official observations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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