Ensemble weather models from NOAA and ECMWF drive trader consensus, with recent runs clustering highest temperatures in Buenos Aires on March 24 around 25-27°C, fueling 29.5% odds on 26°C and 20% on 25°C while capping extremes. The leading 39% implied probability for 23°C or below stems from cooler GFS ensemble members incorporating a potential southerly breeze and increased cloud cover, aligning with autumnal norms where March averages hover near 24°C. Differentiating factors include urban heat island amplification pushing outliers to 28°C (14% odds) versus frontal boundary uncertainties suppressing peaks, as per Servicio Meteorológico Nacional updates; traders await 12Z model refreshes for resolution clarity.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Buenos Aires on March 24?
Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on March 24?
23°C or below 38%
26°C 35%
25°C 15%
27°C 15%
23°C or below
38%
24°C
14%
25°C
20%
26°C
29%
27°C
15%
28°C
14%
29°C
3%
30°C
2%
31°C
11%
32°C
3%
33°C or higher
1%
23°C or below 38%
26°C 35%
25°C 15%
27°C 15%
23°C or below
38%
24°C
14%
25°C
20%
26°C
29%
27°C
15%
28°C
14%
29°C
3%
30°C
2%
31°C
11%
32°C
3%
33°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 20, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble weather models from NOAA and ECMWF drive trader consensus, with recent runs clustering highest temperatures in Buenos Aires on March 24 around 25-27°C, fueling 29.5% odds on 26°C and 20% on 25°C while capping extremes. The leading 39% implied probability for 23°C or below stems from cooler GFS ensemble members incorporating a potential southerly breeze and increased cloud cover, aligning with autumnal norms where March averages hover near 24°C. Differentiating factors include urban heat island amplification pushing outliers to 28°C (14% odds) versus frontal boundary uncertainties suppressing peaks, as per Servicio Meteorológico Nacional updates; traders await 12Z model refreshes for resolution clarity.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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