Trader consensus favors a mild high of 15°C (27%) or 16°C (24.5%) in London on March 24, propelled by the latest UK Met Office and ECMWF ensemble forecasts indicating peaks of 14-17°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge over southern England. This setup, fueled by a mild Atlantic airstream displacing colder continental flows, contrasts with March's historical average maximum of about 11°C at Heathrow, elevating odds for teens over single digits. Differentiating factors include model spread—GFS leans cooler at 13-14°C due to potential cloud incursions, while ECMWF holds warmer amid clearer skies—coupled with urban heat island effects potentially adding 1-2°C downtown. Traders eye evening model updates for resolution shifts amid low volatility in short-range guidance.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in London on March 24?
Highest temperature in London on March 24?
14°C 34%
16°C 34%
17°C 26%
15°C 23%
9°C or below
3%
10°C
6%
11°C
17%
12°C
17%
13°C
18%
14°C
19%
15°C
23%
16°C
29%
17°C
26%
18°C
18%
19°C or higher
3%
14°C 34%
16°C 34%
17°C 26%
15°C 23%
9°C or below
3%
10°C
6%
11°C
17%
12°C
17%
13°C
18%
14°C
19%
15°C
23%
16°C
29%
17°C
26%
18°C
18%
19°C or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 20, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors a mild high of 15°C (27%) or 16°C (24.5%) in London on March 24, propelled by the latest UK Met Office and ECMWF ensemble forecasts indicating peaks of 14-17°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge over southern England. This setup, fueled by a mild Atlantic airstream displacing colder continental flows, contrasts with March's historical average maximum of about 11°C at Heathrow, elevating odds for teens over single digits. Differentiating factors include model spread—GFS leans cooler at 13-14°C due to potential cloud incursions, while ECMWF holds warmer amid clearer skies—coupled with urban heat island effects potentially adding 1-2°C downtown. Traders eye evening model updates for resolution shifts amid low volatility in short-range guidance.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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