Traders overwhelmingly back 12°C or below (96.5% implied probability) for Toronto's highest temperature on March 22, driven by Environment Canada's latest forecast projecting a daytime high of just 4-7°C amid a deep trough of cold Arctic air and scattered lake-effect flurries. Ensemble models from ECMWF, GFS, and GEM reinforce this consensus, showing persistent northerly winds capping temperatures well under 10°C, consistent with Toronto's March climatology where highs average 6°C and rarely exceed 12°C this late in the month. A realistic challenge would require an abrupt ridge amplification or warm front surge, but current 500mb pattern analysis deems this unlikely, with minimal spread in model outputs.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Toronto on March 22?
Highest temperature in Toronto on March 22?
12°C or below 96.5%
13°C 1.9%
14°C <1%
17°C <1%
$53,948 Vol.
$53,948 Vol.
12°C or below
97%
13°C
2%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C or higher
<1%
12°C or below 96.5%
13°C 1.9%
14°C <1%
17°C <1%
$53,948 Vol.
$53,948 Vol.
12°C or below
97%
13°C
2%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders overwhelmingly back 12°C or below (96.5% implied probability) for Toronto's highest temperature on March 22, driven by Environment Canada's latest forecast projecting a daytime high of just 4-7°C amid a deep trough of cold Arctic air and scattered lake-effect flurries. Ensemble models from ECMWF, GFS, and GEM reinforce this consensus, showing persistent northerly winds capping temperatures well under 10°C, consistent with Toronto's March climatology where highs average 6°C and rarely exceed 12°C this late in the month. A realistic challenge would require an abrupt ridge amplification or warm front surge, but current 500mb pattern analysis deems this unlikely, with minimal spread in model outputs.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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