Traders' tight clustering of implied probabilities around 2–5°C for Toronto's highest temperature on March 23 reflects Environment Canada's latest forecast ensembles showing a mild high near 3–4°C amid variable spring conditions, with GFS and GEM models diverging by 1–2°C due to shifting jet stream influences and lingering cold air from Hudson Bay. Historical March 23 averages hover at 6°C, but this year's cooler baseline—driven by reduced lake-effect moderation from Lake Ontario and neutral ENSO patterns—caps upside potential, while overnight lows near 0°C limit extreme warmth. Upcoming 12-hour updates from official agencies could tip sentiment, as small convective shifts differentiate these razor-thin odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Toronto on March 23?
Highest temperature in Toronto on March 23?
3°C 24%
5°C or higher 23%
2°C 22%
1°C 20%
-5°C or below
2%
-4°C
8%
-3°C
11%
-2°C
12%
-1°C
13%
0°C
14%
1°C
20%
2°C
22%
3°C
24%
4°C
23%
5°C or higher
23%
3°C 24%
5°C or higher 23%
2°C 22%
1°C 20%
-5°C or below
2%
-4°C
8%
-3°C
11%
-2°C
12%
-1°C
13%
0°C
14%
1°C
20%
2°C
22%
3°C
24%
4°C
23%
5°C or higher
23%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders' tight clustering of implied probabilities around 2–5°C for Toronto's highest temperature on March 23 reflects Environment Canada's latest forecast ensembles showing a mild high near 3–4°C amid variable spring conditions, with GFS and GEM models diverging by 1–2°C due to shifting jet stream influences and lingering cold air from Hudson Bay. Historical March 23 averages hover at 6°C, but this year's cooler baseline—driven by reduced lake-effect moderation from Lake Ontario and neutral ENSO patterns—caps upside potential, while overnight lows near 0°C limit extreme warmth. Upcoming 12-hour updates from official agencies could tip sentiment, as small convective shifts differentiate these razor-thin odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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