Trader consensus heavily favors 13°C (34.5%) and 14°C (28.5%) as London's highest temperature on March 22, driven by the latest Met Office and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting daytime highs in this narrow band amid a mild Atlantic airflow. These models account for partial cloud cover from a weakening frontal system, limiting solar insolation and capping peaks just below seasonal norms of 11-12°C, while urban heat island effects in central London could nudge readings up by 1°C. Differentiating factors include subtle variations in timing of maximum temperature—mid-afternoon under clearer skies favors 14°C—versus increased low cloud from northerly shear boosting 13°C odds. GFS runs show slight divergence, with 40% of members at 13°C, but traders await 12Z updates for resolution clarity.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Londres le 22 mars ?
La température la plus élevée à Londres le 22 mars ?
13°C 35%
14°C 29%
15°C 14%
12°C 13.5%
$39,620 Vol.
$39,620 Vol.
7°C ou moins
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
1%
11°C
8%
12°C
13%
13°C
35%
14°C
29%
15°C
14%
16°C
1%
17°C ou plus
1%
13°C 35%
14°C 29%
15°C 14%
12°C 13.5%
$39,620 Vol.
$39,620 Vol.
7°C ou moins
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
1%
11°C
8%
12°C
13%
13°C
35%
14°C
29%
15°C
14%
16°C
1%
17°C ou plus
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 18, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors 13°C (34.5%) and 14°C (28.5%) as London's highest temperature on March 22, driven by the latest Met Office and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting daytime highs in this narrow band amid a mild Atlantic airflow. These models account for partial cloud cover from a weakening frontal system, limiting solar insolation and capping peaks just below seasonal norms of 11-12°C, while urban heat island effects in central London could nudge readings up by 1°C. Differentiating factors include subtle variations in timing of maximum temperature—mid-afternoon under clearer skies favors 14°C—versus increased low cloud from northerly shear boosting 13°C odds. GFS runs show slight divergence, with 40% of members at 13°C, but traders await 12Z updates for resolution clarity.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes