Tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 24°C (24%), 25°C (23.5%), and 26°C (22%) reflects convergence in the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, projecting a Buenos Aires high near 25°C under a mild late-summer subtropical ridge with light northerly winds. Recent 12Z model updates diminished hotter advection risks, lowering odds for 27°C+ (31.5% combined), while 23°C (20%) and below incorporate sea breeze potential from the Río de la Plata, which can cap diurnal maxima by 2-3°C. Official SMN guidance aligns with this 24-26°C range, against March historical averages of 27°C, amid low convective activity; traders await afternoon soundings for final differentiation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Buenos Aires le 23 mars ?
La température la plus élevée à Buenos Aires le 23 mars ?
24°C 24%
25°C 23%
23°C 20%
28°C 12%
19°C ou moins
11%
20°C
5%
21°C
9%
22°C
9%
23°C
20%
24°C
24%
25°C
23%
26°C
22%
27°C
6%
28°C
12%
29°C ou plus
10%
24°C 24%
25°C 23%
23°C 20%
28°C 12%
19°C ou moins
11%
20°C
5%
21°C
9%
22°C
9%
23°C
20%
24°C
24%
25°C
23%
26°C
22%
27°C
6%
28°C
12%
29°C ou plus
10%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 24°C (24%), 25°C (23.5%), and 26°C (22%) reflects convergence in the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, projecting a Buenos Aires high near 25°C under a mild late-summer subtropical ridge with light northerly winds. Recent 12Z model updates diminished hotter advection risks, lowering odds for 27°C+ (31.5% combined), while 23°C (20%) and below incorporate sea breeze potential from the Río de la Plata, which can cap diurnal maxima by 2-3°C. Official SMN guidance aligns with this 24-26°C range, against March historical averages of 27°C, amid low convective activity; traders await afternoon soundings for final differentiation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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