Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 29°C (27%) and 30°C (26%) for São Paulo's March 23 high, driven by ensemble weather models like GFS and ECMWF converging on 29-30°C peaks amid a dominant subtropical high-pressure ridge suppressing clouds and boosting solar insolation. INMET's latest forecast corroborates this with mostly sunny skies, low humidity near 50%, and light winds favoring daytime heating from a 20°C morning low, edging out 28°C via reduced convective activity. Above-normal warmth—versus March historical averages of 27.5°C—stems from lingering La Niña decay patterns, though 19% odds for 31°C reflect model spread from urban heat island amplification at the official measurement site.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 23?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 23?
30°C 26%
29°C 22%
31°C 20%
28°C 19%
22°C or below
1%
23°C
9%
24°C
9%
25°C
9%
26°C
10%
27°C
7%
28°C
25%
29°C
22%
30°C
26%
31°C
20%
32°C or higher
19%
30°C 26%
29°C 22%
31°C 20%
28°C 19%
22°C or below
1%
23°C
9%
24°C
9%
25°C
9%
26°C
10%
27°C
7%
28°C
25%
29°C
22%
30°C
26%
31°C
20%
32°C or higher
19%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 29°C (27%) and 30°C (26%) for São Paulo's March 23 high, driven by ensemble weather models like GFS and ECMWF converging on 29-30°C peaks amid a dominant subtropical high-pressure ridge suppressing clouds and boosting solar insolation. INMET's latest forecast corroborates this with mostly sunny skies, low humidity near 50%, and light winds favoring daytime heating from a 20°C morning low, edging out 28°C via reduced convective activity. Above-normal warmth—versus March historical averages of 27.5°C—stems from lingering La Niña decay patterns, though 19% odds for 31°C reflect model spread from urban heat island amplification at the official measurement site.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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