Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Germany's DWD weather service drive trader consensus toward 12-13°C highs in Munich on March 23, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 24.5% and 24.0% respectively, reflecting model runs showing mild southerly airflow displacing cooler Arctic air. Differentiating factors include slight divergences in boundary layer mixing—ECMWF anticipates clearer skies boosting peaks to 13°C, while ICON variants hold at 12°C amid lingering stratocumulus clouds—against historical late-March averages of 11.5°C. Lower odds for 11°C or below stem from weakened cold front risks in updated guidance, though diurnal variability keeps 14°C viable at 18%. Traders eye tomorrow's 12Z model refresh for resolution shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Munich le 23 mars ?
La température la plus élevée à Munich le 23 mars ?
13°C 26%
12°C 24%
11°C 19%
14°C 18%
6°C ou moins
1%
7°C
2%
8°C
3%
9°C
3%
10°C
10%
11°C
19%
12°C
24%
13°C
26%
14°C
18%
15°C
14%
16°C ou plus
15%
13°C 26%
12°C 24%
11°C 19%
14°C 18%
6°C ou moins
1%
7°C
2%
8°C
3%
9°C
3%
10°C
10%
11°C
19%
12°C
24%
13°C
26%
14°C
18%
15°C
14%
16°C ou plus
15%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Germany's DWD weather service drive trader consensus toward 12-13°C highs in Munich on March 23, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 24.5% and 24.0% respectively, reflecting model runs showing mild southerly airflow displacing cooler Arctic air. Differentiating factors include slight divergences in boundary layer mixing—ECMWF anticipates clearer skies boosting peaks to 13°C, while ICON variants hold at 12°C amid lingering stratocumulus clouds—against historical late-March averages of 11.5°C. Lower odds for 11°C or below stem from weakened cold front risks in updated guidance, though diurnal variability keeps 14°C viable at 18%. Traders eye tomorrow's 12Z model refresh for resolution shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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