Trader sentiment for Munich's highest temperature on March 24 hinges on ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting a mild high around 13-14°C under a high-pressure ridge advecting warm continental air from the southeast, boosting odds for 13°C (25.5%) and 14°C (21%). However, model spread introduces uncertainty: the operational ECMWF run hints at peaks near 16°C if föhn-like downslope warming strengthens (favoring 16°C+ at 27.5%), while cooler GFS outliers and DWD surface analyses temper expectations toward 12°C (21%). Historical March 24 averages (~11°C) and recent cool snaps differentiate lower bins (8-11°C at ~17.5% each), with low pressure risks capping extremes below 6°C (8%). Key: monitor 12Z model updates for resolution shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Munich le 24 mars ?
La température la plus élevée à Munich le 24 mars ?
13°C 26%
14°C 24%
12°C 21%
16°C ou plus 19%
6°C ou moins
8%
7°C
8%
8°C
16%
9°C
17%
10°C
17%
11°C
17%
12°C
21%
13°C
26%
14°C
24%
15°C
19%
16°C ou plus
19%
13°C 26%
14°C 24%
12°C 21%
16°C ou plus 19%
6°C ou moins
8%
7°C
8%
8°C
16%
9°C
17%
10°C
17%
11°C
17%
12°C
21%
13°C
26%
14°C
24%
15°C
19%
16°C ou plus
19%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 20, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Munich's highest temperature on March 24 hinges on ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting a mild high around 13-14°C under a high-pressure ridge advecting warm continental air from the southeast, boosting odds for 13°C (25.5%) and 14°C (21%). However, model spread introduces uncertainty: the operational ECMWF run hints at peaks near 16°C if föhn-like downslope warming strengthens (favoring 16°C+ at 27.5%), while cooler GFS outliers and DWD surface analyses temper expectations toward 12°C (21%). Historical March 24 averages (~11°C) and recent cool snaps differentiate lower bins (8-11°C at ~17.5% each), with low pressure risks capping extremes below 6°C (8%). Key: monitor 12Z model updates for resolution shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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