Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Munich high of 12°C or 13°C on March 22, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on 11-14°C amid a mild Atlantic ridge pattern bringing southerly airflow. The German Weather Service (DWD) operational models align closely, projecting a daytime peak around midday under partly cloudy skies, with 12°C edging ahead due to slightly cooler near-surface lapse rates in high-resolution ICON runs compared to warmer 13-14°C outliers from earlier GFS variants. Differentiating factors include subtle wind shear variations—favoring 11°C if northerly gusts persist—and cloud cover uncertainty, as any prolonged overcast could shave 1-2°C off peaks, while historical late-March volatility in the Alps adds tail risk to extremes below 10°C or above 15°C. Traders eye tomorrow's 00Z model refresh for shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Munich on March 22?
Highest temperature in Munich on March 22?
12°C 29%
13°C 26%
14°C 20%
11°C 14%
7°C or below
1%
8°C
2%
9°C
2%
10°C
2%
11°C
14%
12°C
29%
13°C
26%
14°C
20%
15°C
6%
16°C
5%
17°C or higher
1%
12°C 29%
13°C 26%
14°C 20%
11°C 14%
7°C or below
1%
8°C
2%
9°C
2%
10°C
2%
11°C
14%
12°C
29%
13°C
26%
14°C
20%
15°C
6%
16°C
5%
17°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Munich high of 12°C or 13°C on March 22, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on 11-14°C amid a mild Atlantic ridge pattern bringing southerly airflow. The German Weather Service (DWD) operational models align closely, projecting a daytime peak around midday under partly cloudy skies, with 12°C edging ahead due to slightly cooler near-surface lapse rates in high-resolution ICON runs compared to warmer 13-14°C outliers from earlier GFS variants. Differentiating factors include subtle wind shear variations—favoring 11°C if northerly gusts persist—and cloud cover uncertainty, as any prolonged overcast could shave 1-2°C off peaks, while historical late-March volatility in the Alps adds tail risk to extremes below 10°C or above 15°C. Traders eye tomorrow's 00Z model refresh for shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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